TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,720
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,381

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,720 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9267…0f9abacked No41c12,876$5,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,651.189247.8%44 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes60c11,000$6,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6501136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes50c6,454$3,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,237.343435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa5…6292backed No32c4,864$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,297.692313%3 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-66.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Yes55c3,631$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.635232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No72c2,588$1,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.255435.2%19 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Yes73c2,093$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.345147.1%24 W · 27 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+113.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb52c…450cbacked Yes51c1,806$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.061361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes57c1,500$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.952321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No60c1,156$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.49540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed No65c1,144$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.887441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2315…f55bbacked Yes68c1,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed No27c1,000$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc68d…ec12backed No57c871.66$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes42c786.97$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.7311631%36 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb296…cb8fbacked Yes24c740$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes51c700$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.7520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes54c682.28$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.742213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes17c640$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed No45c639.06$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.38540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No45c604.49$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.472030%6 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No49c581.27$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed No27c500$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3651428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d02…446abacked Yes50c495.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-67.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No51c465.5$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes34c440.31$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.162050%10 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0c…e082backed Yes55c421.35$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.93742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+59.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d26…ccb8backed Yes80c400$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Yes70c318.44$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.221136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b25…573ebacked Yes40c292.95$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No53c292.71$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.4611011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f4…7a37backed Yes73c274$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe29a…2d31backed Yes65c259.12$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed No20c251.35$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.4612313%16 W · 107 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2a…179cbacked Yes33c229.47$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7650%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Yes69c226.56$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.27955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes33c210.84$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked No49c210.76$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.0411539.1%45 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Yes66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1322860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-56%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5025…dd30backed Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked No76c200$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f4…2dd3backed Yes54c194.55$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf584…d8dabacked Yes67c188.95$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No39c184.05$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.671757.4%13 W · 162 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-42.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No69c172.04$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.483122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked No66c170.1$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes63c160$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed No20c156.65$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.32540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes43c150$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes53c134$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.53742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x362f…2ddcbacked Yes55c123.92$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeac8…bca4backed No65c116.36$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…115fbacked Yes64c110.18$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa9b…51ffbacked Yes47c105.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+132.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8891…2fc7backed No80c103.74$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd129…7487backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b0…6d38backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+45.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No47c99.66$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.48850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d7…b646backed Yes62c99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Yes61c97.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No29c93.3$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.512619.2%5 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-22.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x404a…575dbacked Yes57c88.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes39c86.79$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.02540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes55c82.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.422445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd1…cedbbacked Yes49c81.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Yes50c81.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…964dbacked Yes32c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7057…a052backed No53c75.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No42c70$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41aa…f1c8backed Yes64c70$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaabe…ff32backed Yes64c65.49$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7533…80cabacked Yes28c65.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed No49c61.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+76.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc80…ae6fbacked Yes80c59.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.55450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes31c55.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1290%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad8…43e2backed Yes54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ff…f5aebacked Yes64c54.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1401…0707backed No41c54.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No47c51.44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.29560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Yes79c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes55c42.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9977…85dfbacked Yes71c41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe348…ef84backed No54c39.67$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.29616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-69.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd418…9a9bbacked Yes60c38.54$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No65c38.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc39d…e24cbacked Yes54c36.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda04…793ebacked Yes55c36.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd187…07b1backed Yes55c36.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbe6…c654backed No74c36.09$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes51c34.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.54119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-80.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1534…044dbacked Yes74c34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.162138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d9…e81ebacked Yes62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3f…994fbacked Yes48c31.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-3.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf374…6a83backed Yes61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No41c29.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdeb…b310backed Yes59c28.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes79c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-62.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.