Chess · resolved market
Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90f285a43a4f57334404724a8f3a262a56c5acaabecb57caaddab0fbe8e1c9fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa5…6292backed Yes | 38c | 1,019$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.11 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 20c | 919.93$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.69 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 18c | 730.39$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.13 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9b…51ffbacked Yes | 22c | 625.17$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0c…e082backed Yes | 12c | 622.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 11c | 494.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.92 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 72c | 492.94$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked No | 77c | 409.28$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.14 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 6c | 320.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.16 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked Yes | 65c | 307.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 49c | 280$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…302dbacked Yes | 80c | 216.72$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 202.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.6 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 40c | 180$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 79c | 167.92$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…2628backed Yes | 12c | 164.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 72c | 132$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 29c | 118.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 9c | 115$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.31 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 14c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0799…31e6backed Yes | 23c | 106.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 56c | 104.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…1d59backed Yes | 20c | 101$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 74c | 82.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yes | 27c | 53.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…4d0dbacked Yes | 22c | 49.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdeb…b310backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…3f0bbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?this page
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?No won
- Will Hans Niemann win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?No won
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?No won
- Will Parham Maghsoodloo win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?No won
- Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.