Chess · resolved market
Will Fabiano Caruana win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1be0f6e8c6bb729e39a313702bb333b46e8af608e3808a95ab85bb06d149cfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked No | 50c | 11,187$5,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,564.6 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff1…2890backed Yes | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…fd57backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 23c | 5,918$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.43 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed No | 70c | 3,813$2,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No | 50c | 3,362$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.29 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,851$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.38 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed Yes | 71c | 1,158$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…149bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,138$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 50c | 1,057$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.24 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…d191backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 46c | 785.95$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.41 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…5d9fbacked Yes | 58c | 756.25$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed Yes | 21c | 634.17$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed No | 35c | 592.65$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 54c | 378$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 58c | 336.3$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.55 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 45c | 331.46$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +87%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…816ebacked Yes | 51c | 280.95$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 48c | 206$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x262d…aaaebacked Yes | 25c | 201.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…90fabacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…96ecbacked Yes | 57c | 183.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 78c | 178.66$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd7…1778backed Yes | 66c | 153.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe75…b5c0backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 57c | 72.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 76c | 72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…31b1backed No | 63c | 71.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…22abbacked Yes | 71c | 60.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…549ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 54c | 37.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9be…6252backed Yes | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…394dbacked Yes | 67c | 15.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?No won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?No won
- Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?No won
- Will Wesley So win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.