Chess · resolved market
Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8f4c81a4f28889f9d4f7a6305c3e456fa0f40f242bae4a868729b16b0b6eb62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 35c | 3,630$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked No | 32c | 1,056$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.77 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…f919backed Yes | 37c | 945.95$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 35c | 451.84$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.79 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…d191backed Yes | 28c | 451.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…5d9fbacked Yes | 34c | 388.24$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed No | 70c | 221.43$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…f8ddbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 14c | 144.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 28c | 105.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…6eadbacked Yes | 17c | 80.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 67c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +87%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…96ecbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 36c | 36.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…ff36backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9be…6252backed No | 64c | 26.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?No won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?No won
- Will Wesley So win the Sinquefield Cup 2025 chess tournament?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.