Movies · resolved market
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross less than $25m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4edbb6396be97240bbfde0d8f0fcac80d64f7491241e39515e90d05d8f30d0c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf07…2313backed Yes | 51c | 34,875$17,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,088.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4957…4cbcbacked No | 49c | 34,875$17,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,088.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 60c | 15,181$9,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,096.3 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 72c | 7,131$5,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.3 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 66c | 6,521$4,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.58 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 44c | 3,684$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.43 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 43c | 3,675$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.72 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 71c | 3,412$2,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.32 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 26c | 2,344$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.07 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 40c | 1,315$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.57 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 23c | 1,197$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.49 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 54c | 1,111$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.22 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 76c | 1,000$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.36 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 61c | 655$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.45 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.8 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 580.26$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.41 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…3dffbacked Yes | 40c | 387$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 39c | 349$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.55 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 60c | 335.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.02 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 56c | 319.7$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.7 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 50c | 314.05$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.59 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…488fbacked Yes | 72c | 310$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 36c | 294.01$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.95 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 263$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 19c | 260$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 52c | 229.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.04 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed Yes | 48c | 227.25$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.81 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bf…8e48backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…cbcdbacked No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 44c | 190.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 32c | 189.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes | 34c | 184.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 47c | 168.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 161.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 11c | 152.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 14c | 148.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes | 49c | 114$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…b743backed Yes | 61c | 113.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadcd…1549backed No | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 49c | 105.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…fe1abacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 55c | 72.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 39c | 61.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c691backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…0d1cbacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…96f6backed Yes | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…bb46backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 64c | 28.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…aa54backed Yes | 66c | 22.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Yes | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Accountant 2' gross less than $25m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'The Accountant 2' gross between $25-28m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'The Accountant 2' gross between $28-31m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'The Accountant 2' gross more than $31m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.