Movies · resolved market
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross between $25-28m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ee623f3d5b797a36c92d009fc34ba1929e268b4f42ff089fbce4165f86cd3f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e11…fddcbacked No | 56c | 60,675$33,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,727.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680b…3232backed Yes | 46c | 31,108$14,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,309.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…f535backed Yes | 42c | 29,567$12,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,418.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 16c | 7,621$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.63 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 52c | 4,677$2,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,436.43 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 4c | 3,245$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 60c | 1,872$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.22 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 24c | 1,708$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.9 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…3dffbacked No | 75c | 1,320$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.42 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 28c | 1,005$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.2 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…6faebacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 21c | 941.47$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.3 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 43c | 700$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 27c | 520.96$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 12c | 438$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 431.9$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 35c | 350$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 11c | 306.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 9c | 300.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 75c | 287.68$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…6e99backed Yes | 9c | 282.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked No | 36c | 245.03$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.76 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 79c | 240$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 69c | 229.06$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 10c | 183$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 29c | 172.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 71c | 160.09$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 11c | 158.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 52c | 135$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 22c | 86.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 50c | 86.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 80.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 53.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 72c | 38.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…cbe6backed No | 46c | 36.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Accountant 2' gross between $25-28m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'The Accountant 2' gross between $28-31m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'The Accountant 2' gross less than $25m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'The Accountant 2' gross more than $31m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.