TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof Natus Vincere, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$279,292
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$298,391

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,292 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 274 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere37c23,709$8,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,781.83,25650.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L+97.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION48c18,050$8,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,385.653,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed PARIVISION39c8,913$3,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,392.5832425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed PARIVISION36c8,046$2,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,120.2381843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Natus Vincere61c7,700$4,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,729.3828453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Natus Vincere63c7,320$4,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,609.110749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c9…b8bbbacked PARIVISION44c6,268$2,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,487.681947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5ab…0fe6backed PARIVISION43c5,774$2,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,291.253253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Natus Vincere57c4,998$2,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,858.7375350.5%380 W · 373 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc736…7255backed PARIVISION50c4,972$2,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,486.311442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Natus Vincere57c4,416$2,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,517.1246949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Natus Vincere58c4,276$2,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.4319455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Natus Vincere56c4,241$2,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,354.0345848.5%222 W · 236 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Natus Vincere27c4,154$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.559839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere42c4,066$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.741,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked Natus Vincere40c3,973$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.0427133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked PARIVISION44c3,931$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.9142440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere62c3,861$2,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.0581751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed Natus Vincere48c3,724$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80010047%47 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed PARIVISION41c3,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.991,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed PARIVISION43c2,963$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.3364552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed PARIVISION54c2,640$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.891,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Natus Vincere66c2,254$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.6533457.8%193 W · 141 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere41c2,072$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.741,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Natus Vincere45c2,049$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.8675145.4%341 W · 410 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Natus Vincere41c1,600$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.991457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Natus Vincere64c1,500$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96055043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x757d…1496backed PARIVISION53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.9924549.8%122 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x901e…0be6backed Natus Vincere78c1,420$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.73366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc5…197fbacked Natus Vincere63c1,345$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.032352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8b0…2aaebacked PARIVISION44c1,330$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.755451.9%28 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa340…409bbacked PARIVISION30c1,250$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.722152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+65.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Natus Vincere58c1,133$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.7544648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x331a…ff18backed PARIVISION45c1,121$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.397841%32 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6183…575fbacked Natus Vincere56c1,071$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed PARIVISION48c1,013$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.2627348.4%132 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed PARIVISION52c999.99$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.953158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2627…13b4backed Natus Vincere56c967.19$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.41728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed PARIVISION42c952.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.3820944%92 W · 117 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed PARIVISION55c929.88$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41621051%107 W · 103 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed PARIVISION37c905.41$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.4124233.9%82 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked Natus Vincere58c862.07$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50065250.5%329 W · 323 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere56c789.02$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.241,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Natus Vincere59c753.65$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.2835242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7ca…8f8fbacked Natus Vincere37c738.62$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.283033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Natus Vincere41c738.15$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.9817850%89 W · 89 L-0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere44c700.97$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.072,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed PARIVISION37c700$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44158961.3%361 W · 228 L-1.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed PARIVISION43c697.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.6713937.4%52 W · 87 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Natus Vincere56c692.98$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.224457%139 W · 105 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2849…0cd8backed PARIVISION56c684.56$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.031580%12 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+23.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5498…126fbacked PARIVISION54c627.82$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.845151%26 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed PARIVISION49c625.86$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.034,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb55f…5705backed Natus Vincere15c561.66$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.23605%3 W · 57 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce16…d66fbacked PARIVISION38c509.62$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.899941.4%41 W · 58 L-0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0117…dce3backed Natus Vincere59c508.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+215.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed PARIVISION27c504.15$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.031,27721.9%280 W · 997 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Natus Vincere58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8674…c125backed Natus Vincere50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa60…556cbacked Natus Vincere49c482.19$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.0432352%168 W · 155 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Natus Vincere57c437.99$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2495455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf4…b11abacked Natus Vincere71c434.49$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.824961.2%30 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed PARIVISION28c422.44$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.4856822.5%128 W · 440 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed Natus Vincere49c408.91$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.2310167.3%68 W · 33 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ab…eb07backed Natus Vincere47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1885550.9%28 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e14…8d33backed PARIVISION65c399.98$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.322040%8 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b53…5961backed Natus Vincere29c383.44$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Natus Vincere79c379.93$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30055845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION41c373.57$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.837,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Natus Vincere43c361.38$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5323646.2%109 W · 127 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed PARIVISION60c360$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1445841.4%24 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed PARIVISION38c353$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.553647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed PARIVISION61c350.94$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4669863%440 W · 258 L+65.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcbc2…4bc8backed Natus Vincere70c343.21$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2415658.9%33 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Natus Vincere51c318$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1822365%145 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b9…13febacked Natus Vincere58c310.91$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.331338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed PARIVISION55c309.16$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.421,54633.8%523 W · 1,023 L-73.9wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed PARIVISION45c307.76$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.0119342%81 W · 112 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed PARIVISION55c306.63$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.93066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+21.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e62…ef0fbacked Natus Vincere80c303.41$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.732751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed PARIVISION30c300$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2103330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Natus Vincere57c299.99$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1715,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed PARIVISION42c299.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9950833.5%170 W · 338 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ce…2054backed PARIVISION67c298.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.661266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f4…8c1ebacked Natus Vincere54c286$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1427947.7%133 W · 146 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked PARIVISION55c284.75$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.112540%10 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e26…123fbacked Natus Vincere72c277.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Natus Vincere42c270.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.696040%24 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f26…c83bbacked PARIVISION42c253$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.7420936.4%76 W · 133 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8912…1712backed Natus Vincere28c250$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.527735.7%99 W · 178 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed PARIVISION42c245.24$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.2411928.6%34 W · 85 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34f9…12ebbacked PARIVISION44c240.48$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.6726836.6%98 W · 170 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef59…f4debacked PARIVISION66c235.9$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.91675%12 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Natus Vincere54c234.96$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1115738.2%60 W · 97 L-13.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Natus Vincere65c229.95$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14915162.3%94 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked PARIVISION39c225.64$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.641,18122.5%266 W · 915 L+3.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1227…4c44backed Natus Vincere54c221.2$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4425…12efbacked PARIVISION37c217$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.718248.8%40 W · 42 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed PARIVISION52c210.15$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.877648.7%37 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9f…578abacked Natus Vincere41c209.79$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2813044.6%58 W · 72 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.