TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$177,049
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$195,742

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,049 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea9b…2be5backed PARIVISION0c65,810$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8111742.7%50 W · 67 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked PARIVISION34c16,282$5,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,576.33,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Natus Vincere67c5,892$3,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,963.9133457.8%193 W · 141 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere60c4,879$2,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,965.31,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere53c3,847$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,807.1881843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Natus Vincere49c3,744$1,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,897.1959839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked PARIVISION31c3,476$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.331,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25ac…3e47backed Natus Vincere75c2,587$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.198564.7%55 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed PARIVISION40c2,336$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.134,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed PARIVISION40c2,163$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.441,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Natus Vincere52c1,911$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.6346949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked PARIVISION43c1,706$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72865650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked PARIVISION43c1,621$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.172,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere54c1,551$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.351,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed PARIVISION8c1,277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010047%47 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Natus Vincere70c1,090$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.2844648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9936…1d7dbacked PARIVISION40c999.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked PARIVISION43c799.57$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.732,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed PARIVISION54c798.98$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.4558961.3%361 W · 228 L-1.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed PARIVISION42c721.5$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013937.4%52 W · 87 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION39c651.73$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.097,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed PARIVISION33c606.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.629128.5%83 W · 208 L-30.2wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb55f…5705backed PARIVISION2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12605%3 W · 57 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked PARIVISION29c594.41$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2922927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7811…6e14backed PARIVISION47c529.97$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.0916442.7%70 W · 94 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b0…2aaebacked PARIVISION46c519.57$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2395451.9%28 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa340…409bbacked Natus Vincere77c512.09$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.32152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+65.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Natus Vincere53c499.98$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.031,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked PARIVISION17c488$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.192,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa60…556cbacked Natus Vincere53c450$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.532352%168 W · 155 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ab…eb07backed Natus Vincere46c401.99$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.945550.9%28 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed PARIVISION10c350$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3524440.2%98 W · 146 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafa3…0915backed PARIVISION61c329.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.294955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked PARIVISION50c319.98$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9981244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Natus Vincere71c311.34$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7615162.3%94 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed PARIVISION23c303.74$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.761,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48a5…a903backed PARIVISION51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15311440.4%46 W · 68 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked PARIVISION18c295.77$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8152834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7963…630dbacked PARIVISION52c294.96$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.38425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90af…ad4abacked Natus Vincere50c270.59$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.591241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed PARIVISION47c269.16$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6215743.3%68 W · 89 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9777…6b53backed Natus Vincere77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7419732.5%64 W · 133 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked PARIVISION37c259$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4760147.4%285 W · 316 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Natus Vincere78c257.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5322365%145 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf75…92cfbacked PARIVISION32c253.64$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806456.3%36 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad6b…1fdebacked PARIVISION23c245.54$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.972722.2%6 W · 21 L-5.1wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-51.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Natus Vincere47c239.58$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.7944743.8%196 W · 251 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked PARIVISION50c237.87$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12044641.3%184 W · 262 L-28.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x185a…5104backed PARIVISION25c237.51$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.456714.9%10 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Natus Vincere69c227.97$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.673066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+21.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x48c9…5e87backed PARIVISION65c219.78$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Natus Vincere65c193.94$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.33158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc95b…de91backed PARIVISION40c191.22$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.241172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+55.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Natus Vincere55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8237445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f7b…0cc9backed PARIVISION56c179.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006755.2%37 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Natus Vincere62c177.85$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.091,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c2…190bbacked Natus Vincere61c175.26$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.356643.9%29 W · 37 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+43.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed PARIVISION58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031654.7%173 W · 143 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7178…8fb9backed PARIVISION61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006454.7%35 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ab…4dc5backed PARIVISION33c151.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9813241.7%55 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc378…e4a8backed Natus Vincere77c144.42$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.22837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x110c…d9c6backed PARIVISION38c142.73$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.838733.3%29 W · 58 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bce…8dc3backed Natus Vincere50c141.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ca…8f8fbacked Natus Vincere66c126.28$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.53033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked PARIVISION63c120.16$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.723646.2%109 W · 127 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked PARIVISION42c119.38$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.574953.1%26 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed PARIVISION38c117.18$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.711928.6%34 W · 85 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x497c…ccd1backed PARIVISION41c111.2$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…818ebacked PARIVISION30c110.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee1…377abacked Natus Vincere55c109.42$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2421354.5%116 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Natus Vincere66c107.67$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6259647.3%282 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked PARIVISION47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507157.7%41 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked PARIVISION46c106.09$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.880741.3%333 W · 474 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…8229backed PARIVISION49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508941.6%37 W · 52 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Natus Vincere66c101.95$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4519247.9%92 W · 100 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcd…42f2backed PARIVISION42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4263541.1%261 W · 374 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed PARIVISION41c97.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020332.5%66 W · 137 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67c3…0e36backed Natus Vincere72c97.22$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.224860.4%29 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4566…8063backed PARIVISION40c91.36$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.395639.3%22 W · 34 L-8.7wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked PARIVISION52c90.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4746447.6%221 W · 243 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f7…7714backed PARIVISION34c88.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3019048.9%93 W · 97 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed PARIVISION40c86.34$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2815738.2%60 W · 97 L-13.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc391…6cc8backed PARIVISION41c86.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.975048%24 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8941…3126backed PARIVISION47c85.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015132.5%49 W · 102 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-25.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5541…f1e3backed PARIVISION59c84.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019150.8%97 W · 94 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a8f…046abacked PARIVISION14c83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked PARIVISION51c80$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.81,28137.8%484 W · 797 L+5.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4da1…e6dfbacked Natus Vincere54c75.41$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6910446.2%48 W · 56 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4425…12efbacked Natus Vincere54c75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.58248.8%40 W · 42 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ccc…6b82backed PARIVISION39c74.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.947850%39 W · 39 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Natus Vincere67c73.71$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3722761.7%140 W · 87 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1323…3cbbbacked Natus Vincere41c73.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked PARIVISION33c71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7469624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Natus Vincere55c68.42$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5419342%81 W · 112 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed PARIVISION33c65.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2120243.6%88 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked PARIVISION39c64.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510660.4%64 W · 42 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed Natus Vincere49c61.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.831,24841.3%516 W · 732 L+5.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked PARIVISION62c57.64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7435341.6%147 W · 206 L-28.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed PARIVISION53c55.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2431757.7%183 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a60…24dfbacked PARIVISION32c54.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.