Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in April 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21e6b634e10eb7144980f50915338dbe1fa2358a6ca86218b3bb31ac8ea95b48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $196,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 0c | 44,378$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 68c | 16,863$11,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,404.43 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 25c | 7,491$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.82 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 58c | 4,879$2,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,838.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 3c | 3,120$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,067$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 43c | 2,920$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.73 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 61c | 2,507$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.26 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 26c | 2,124$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 32c | 1,776$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.99 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 60c | 1,504$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 1,493$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…47fcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,394$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 38c | 1,343$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.32 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 26c | 1,299$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 6c | 1,118$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.09 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f53…e2b5backed Yes | 24c | 813.68$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.17 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 19c | 750$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 684.79$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 28c | 572.62$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.93 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 35c | 521.45$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.96 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 72c | 500$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdd…31acbacked Yes | 4c | 413.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 41c | 381.94$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.73 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 33c | 373.9$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.63 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 51c | 362.3$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.22 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 41c | 300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 68c | 278.25$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.91 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 72c | 274.77$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 24c | 240.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 228.66$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…f499backed No | 7c | 200$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…494dbacked Yes | 10c | 184.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 15c | 123$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 71c | 110$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 101.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 18c | 79.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 57c | 67.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 40c | 65.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 55.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 62c | 55.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +1,386.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked No | 62c | 51.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7592…b5cbbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 80c | 45.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…c90bbacked No | 70c | 42.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…a88abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in April 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in April 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in April 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in April 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.41ºC in April 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.