Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in April 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6504cb61869aacb7077f32f604ac3439f25eaabc8b469fa2df692066b65ffafb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 0c | 31,648$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,279$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed Yes | 1c | 13,751$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 1c | 6,552$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…cb07backed Yes | 0c | 4,905$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 35c | 4,506$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.39 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 3,818$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 3c | 2,316$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6b…3e7abacked Yes | 1c | 1,932$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,775$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,400$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.75 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 28c | 1,180$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.11 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,114$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 14c | 1,057$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.06 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 4c | 1,054$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 18c | 911.66$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.1 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…b81cbacked Yes | 2c | 802$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 39c | 800$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 423.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 18c | 279.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 257.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f53…e2b5backed Yes | 17c | 247.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 20c | 222$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 10c | 175.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 26c | 152.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 75c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…c90bbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +1,386.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in April 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in April 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in April 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in April 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.41ºC in April 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.