Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x794cc09686ad0514db44128c1a799e0baf901b315feb4e1f6a2df899e60d30e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5093…272cbacked No | 0c | 16,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 13c | 12,677$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,053.42 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 20c | 6,735$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,403.51 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 9c | 5,871$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,320.6 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 6c | 5,010$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,705.03 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 29c | 3,510$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,490.14 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…bc37backed Yes | 5c | 3,117$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,964.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +335.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 14c | 2,036$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +244.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 16c | 1,596$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.85 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 13c | 1,200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.99 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 44c | 1,100$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.31 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 7c | 892.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 33c | 856.1$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.57 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 42c | 794.1$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 33c | 723.75$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.67 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 22c | 717.46$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.03 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 34c | 703.61$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.41 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 624.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.9 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 32c | 619.78$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.94 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f53…e2b5backed Yes | 25c | 541.57$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 4c | 533.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.04 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 49c | 521.38$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.88 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed No | 75c | 521.01$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.8 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 5c | 517.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.37 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…cb07backed Yes | 4c | 460.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.1 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 410.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 30c | 410$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 40c | 409.68$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.2 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c8…46cbbacked Yes | 5c | 404$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,940.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.8 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 8c | 370$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.7 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdd…31acbacked No | 50c | 283.54$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 72c | 262$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 62c | 233.72$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.05 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 39c | 200.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 12c | 181.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.39 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 23c | 161.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.08 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 159.71$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…c90bbacked Yes | 15c | 153.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.89 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 150.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 25c | 126.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 66c | 126$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked No | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…8a10backed No | 21c | 114.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 10c | 113.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.77 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 62c | 95.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 35c | 94.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…2a22backed Yes | 77c | 92.53$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…bf18backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 20c | 53.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +1,386.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 66c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4006…afd0backed No | 60c | 33.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in April 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in April 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in April 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in April 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.41ºC in April 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.