Movies · resolved market
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 48-64m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dd0257b0ad8f5472831335cca9b369fc5e9df44dc2f9bbdc3822d269e828415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacff…ef30backed Yes | 1c | 10,718$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 32c | 10,316$3,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,348.61 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed Yes | 2c | 5,573$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,664$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8abf…e30dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,536$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 2,529$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.88 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 6c | 2,483$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.53 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 29c | 2,134$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.6 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,111$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 2c | 2,063$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 2,039$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 12c | 1,733$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.84 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,679$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.19 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,647$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,493$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 5c | 1,080$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e39…4e41backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 4c | 978.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 2c | 969$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 31c | 908.25$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.99 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 35c | 899.98$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.9 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 34c | 740.96$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.36 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 648.45$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.53 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 4c | 595$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 592.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c691backed Yes | 17c | 449.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…40d8backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe28…e921backed Yes | 4c | 352$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 31c | 312.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 4c | 274.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ece…7120backed Yes | 20c | 254.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 25c | 252.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 6c | 241$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 31c | 222$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…ccbabacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…498dbacked Yes | 29c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 136$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 73c | 135.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 130.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 80c | 116$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x427d…bdf1backed Yes | 19c | 112.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83eb…2ea6backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 79c | 96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 95.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 31c | 54.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…d111backed No | 67c | 44.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf347…c3b5backed Yes | 33c | 42.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes | 30c | 33.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f62…2ab2backed Yes | 34c | 31.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f4…c2b7backed Yes | 33c | 31.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb3…6191backed Yes | 42c | 26.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…64bfbacked No | 68c | 26.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…5b4dbacked No | 68c | 22.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…c983backed No | 68c | 21.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3627…43f6backed No | 68c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…5b70backed No | 68c | 17.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4af…217dbacked No | 68c | 16.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Minecraft' gross between 48-64m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Minecraft' gross between 46-52m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Minecraft' gross between 52-58m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Minecraft' gross between 64-70m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Minecraft' gross less than 46m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 70m on opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.