TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 70m on opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$345,967
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$335,604

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,967 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc629…aa40backed No0c110,000$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked No2c12,345$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.872825%7 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes48c11,541$5,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,030.2216350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x16f7…5afcbacked No1c8,062$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked No0c6,118$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes79c5,578$4,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.53447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes23c4,423$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,401.466023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8abf…e30dbacked No26c4,169$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.3550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes54c4,161$2,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.7832639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed No10c3,499$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.12425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c3b…e2f5backed No1c3,344$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0460%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x116f…9210backed Yes48c3,243$1,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.4810123.8%24 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe28…e921backed No1c3,060$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-67.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e39…4e41backed No7c2,500$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed No2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes54c2,314$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.449238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes77c2,300$1,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5338633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3b…e1e3backed No1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes19c2,000$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,61419031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c1,738$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.32983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x280f…60a9backed No1c1,625$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed Yes44c1,621$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.229441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99ec…f99ebacked No5c1,301$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.25244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-84.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa880…d095backed No36c1,154$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.88633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-48.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2f2c…9b1cbacked No1c1,134$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…c3f9backed No2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d92…c717backed No1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ce…54a5backed No38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe461…9a34backed No10c816.7$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.54520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ca…2f89backed No14c701.66$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.05728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed No5c604.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…64ddbacked No5c584.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20f4…5ffcbacked No33c566.67$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.53551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7999…ee7ebacked No29c553.55$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.74411.4%5 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed No6c535.06$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No28c520$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.28840.9%36 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No27c519.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe22…66b3backed No3c518.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.07175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-79.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3338…7624backed No25c500.35$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked No21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No66c465.41$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.4850633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed No22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4427…498dbacked Yes9c450$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.42825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+50.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef05…3dffbacked Yes67c450$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.51662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb288…fa0fbacked No5c439.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed Yes22c424.76$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.769932.3%32 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked No24c420$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x663e…40d8backed No4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes50c392.85$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.7712240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc032…6668backed Yes12c329.13$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.13520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No27c273.31$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.827020%14 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9949…3f3bbacked No4c251.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes73c250$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.71154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked Yes8c250$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+303.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd28f…b499backed Yes67c241.92$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes72c221.58$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.051637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6af…d83fbacked No23c213.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes13c200$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17410632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c194.5$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2987033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes19c191.23$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15548414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes8c181$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.3315054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes15c170$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.22532%8 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c4…3797backed Yes68c159.6$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed No69c155.71$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.712268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef17…6583backed Yes70c142.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.983161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7738…76a4backed Yes16c125$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1053915.4%6 W · 33 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-62.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-43.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9c37…c8f0backed No36c75.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.361526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f52…6671backed Yes14c75.79$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+145%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5429…a2ecbacked Yes16c64.71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.41450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+96.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No80c62.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…c691backed No35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes23c54.61$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.046127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x023b…5ab1backed Yes71c52.79$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.513135.1%46 W · 85 L-14.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7ff4…55bcbacked No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-19.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x82f0…37adbacked Yes77c45.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8b…e143backed Yes67c40.3$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4187…8739backed Yes75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa5…d98bbacked Yes80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccc…a831backed Yes78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.