Movies · resolved market
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 64-70m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebdc11b333d18d6742ed50f976e93c791ae1711ce8589eb1bce07e1d5083c64e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43f6…bebcbacked Yes | 1c | 54,300$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 0c | 17,197$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…ef30backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 1c | 8,211$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 21c | 5,736$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.63 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 15c | 5,440$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.78 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,051$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 6c | 4,042$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.08 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed Yes | 2c | 3,594$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 22c | 3,517$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.15 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,669$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 16c | 2,057$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.03 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,034$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.72 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,000$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.17 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3feb…34abbacked Yes | 3c | 1,860$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…1419backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,431$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.79 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 19c | 1,392$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.71 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 3c | 1,373$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 19c | 1,040$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 1c | 920.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 17c | 899.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.27 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 832.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 804.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes | 23c | 615.45$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 7c | 600.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e39…4e41backed Yes | 10c | 599.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 16c | 598.76$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 594.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 18c | 557.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 17c | 550$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 10c | 536.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 21c | 516.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…498dbacked Yes | 9c | 450$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 3c | 417.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 397.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed Yes | 13c | 322.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…675ebacked Yes | 12c | 318.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed Yes | 16c | 269.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 17c | 224.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 7c | 216.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe28…e921backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…1237backed Yes | 18c | 68.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e30…08d5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Minecraft' gross between 64-70m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Minecraft' gross between 46-52m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Minecraft' gross between 48-64m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Minecraft' gross between 52-58m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Minecraft' gross less than 46m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 70m on opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.