Us Politics · resolved market
Trump imposes 100% tariff on China before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c710e1f2840ef641a522ad2c409cd78df41ea8e2676abfe82627e79df697f7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 0c | 19,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 0c | 16,568$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…8898backed Yes | 50c | 15,182$7,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,541.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 50c | 8,611$4,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,305.29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 57c | 8,272$4,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,692.24 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 24c | 5,323$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.03 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…2ab6backed No | 66c | 5,321$3,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,487 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 12c | 4,054$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,578.55 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…7690backed Yes | 15c | 3,778$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,196.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…48febacked No | 2c | 3,251$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…4c13backed No | 16c | 2,924$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7709…5852backed No | 2c | 2,813$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 31c | 2,737$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 11c | 2,512$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.09 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +411%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 31c | 2,480$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.56 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e64…9917backed No | 35c | 2,383$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 2,290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 46c | 2,098$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.91 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed No | 17c | 1,916$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.01 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cc…bb23backed No | 1c | 1,869$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 50c | 1,715$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.84 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 3c | 1,641$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 55c | 1,504$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.74 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f00…ecf6backed No | 1c | 1,493$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303d…8f9dbacked No | 7c | 1,467$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 5c | 1,432$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4382…1a13backed No | 52c | 1,300$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 36c | 1,279$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.6 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccb4…ac9cbacked No | 1c | 1,212$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6343…bf0abacked Yes | 61c | 1,160$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…c19cbacked No | 1c | 1,130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 45c | 1,119$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.22 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 10c | 1,111$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.32 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 37c | 1,064$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.96 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed No | 11c | 1,041$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…dcc9backed No | 2c | 1,034$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,009$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.97 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 61c | 893.27$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.07 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…29e2backed No | 6c | 805.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 4c | 706.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 4c | 699.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…c812backed No | 21c | 662.7$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b8…976cbacked Yes | 47c | 638.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed No | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 42c | 599.99$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…2aa7backed Yes | 51c | 500$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.53 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…b23ebacked Yes | 61c | 490.7$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 482.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.26 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…b6abbacked Yes | 11c | 477.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 58c | 475.68$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.16 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 458.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 54c | 443.99$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.54 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 423.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 411.08$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.43 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 39c | 402.29$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.46 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed Yes | 46c | 370.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.04 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…8dacbacked Yes | 45c | 356.04$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…b32abacked No | 15c | 337$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 61c | 326.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf665…d8b4backed No | 58c | 320$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…bfacbacked No | 41c | 295.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b58…eba2backed Yes | 45c | 287.13$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 46c | 283.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.35 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 58c | 275$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.56 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1a…703dbacked No | 21c | 260.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 51c | 260.21$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x960c…e052backed Yes | 46c | 252.12$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.14 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked No | 57c | 250$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…412cbacked No | 41c | 246.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…f1bfbacked Yes | 56c | 243$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 41c | 234.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.36 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2e31backed Yes | 43c | 233.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…00efbacked No | 8c | 203.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…2a92backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…b65bbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8b…219ebacked No | 6c | 191.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 6c | 170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x318a…360bbacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 46c | 160.39$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff4…b7c5backed Yes | 63c | 158.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…7970backed No | 8c | 158.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 35c | 155$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 56c | 150.63$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 36c | 147.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…534cbacked Yes | 63c | 143.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb23…62e2backed No | 60c | 132.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes | 60c | 128$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279a…9d1ebacked No | 12c | 116.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 52c | 114$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…2e90backed Yes | 49c | 102.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.