TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump imposes 100% tariff on China before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$183,085
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$178,983

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,085 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x79cb…331ebacked No0c19,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.511612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No0c16,568$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Yes50c15,182$7,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,541.421127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed No50c8,611$4,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,305.2990%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No57c8,272$4,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,692.2415646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No24c5,323$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.035349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c77…2ab6backed No66c5,321$3,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,48720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes12c4,054$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,578.5537844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xddb8…7690backed Yes15c3,778$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,196.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb777…48febacked No2c3,251$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef10…4c13backed No16c2,924$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed No2c2,813$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Yes31c2,737$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.73812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes11c2,512$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,247.091118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick5cpaid+411%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No31c2,480$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.5618033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e64…9917backed No35c2,383$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No1c2,290$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.582400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed Yes46c2,098$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.914858.3%28 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd189…06f4backed No17c1,916$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.011723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cc…bb23backed No1c1,869$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b73…4766backed Yes50c1,715$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.843135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No3c1,641$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8921935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No55c1,504$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.743860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f00…ecf6backed No1c1,493$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x303d…8f9dbacked No7c1,467$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No5c1,432$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1128320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4382…1a13backed No52c1,300$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67930%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes36c1,279$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.611336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xccb4…ac9cbacked No1c1,212$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-28.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6343…bf0abacked Yes61c1,160$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd553…c19cbacked No1c1,130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db7…c901backed Yes45c1,119$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.222850%14 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes10c1,111$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.323441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No37c1,064$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.962147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99c…3070backed No11c1,041$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11090%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8928…dcc9backed No2c1,034$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes10c1,009$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.973737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba36…27eabacked Yes10c1,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes61c893.27$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.077441.9%31 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a7…29e2backed No6c805.57$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+62.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No4c706.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8915124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No4c699.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.413525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa840…c812backed No21c662.7$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b8…976cbacked Yes47c638.88$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.87450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c3b…e2f5backed No2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed Yes42c599.99$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3512646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115d…2aa7backed Yes51c500$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.532343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No3c500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No6c500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.58058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfe9b…b23ebacked Yes61c490.7$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.37837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c482.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.2655618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…b6abbacked Yes11c477.36$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.85520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes58c475.68$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.1614125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c458.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.811,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No54c443.99$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.549347.3%44 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No15c423.57$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No47c411.08$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.4399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No39c402.29$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4669634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed Yes46c370.99$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.041936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0432…8dacbacked Yes45c356.04$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.82560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc8d…b32abacked No15c337$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.49650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Yes61c326.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.58944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf665…d8b4backed No58c320$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2060…bfacbacked No41c295.43$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.81435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b58…eba2backed Yes45c287.13$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb12d…62b4backed Yes46c283.35$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.354131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes58c275$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.567051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a1a…703dbacked No21c260.93$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No51c260.21$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.716229%18 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x960c…e052backed Yes46c252.12$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.81955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No42c250$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1437740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b66…002bbacked No57c250$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.53043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ec…412cbacked No41c246.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x456a…f1bfbacked Yes56c243$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes41c234.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.3618746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f7d…2e31backed Yes43c233.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.273030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd046…00efbacked No8c203.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed No6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.23938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No72c200$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14412643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7059…2a92backed Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4354…b65bbacked No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes9c200$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18214819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b5…205cbacked No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d8b…219ebacked No6c191.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed No6c170$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.954040%16 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+82.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x318a…360bbacked Yes62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe633…c0febacked Yes46c160.39$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.051741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff4…b7c5backed Yes63c158.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.62580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ed7…7970backed No8c158.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No35c155$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556131.1%19 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No56c150.63$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0713167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+73.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No36c147.35$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7631840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9b…534cbacked Yes63c143.15$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.15771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb23…62e2backed No60c132.47$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick71cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes60c128$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.21250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x279a…9d1ebacked No12c116.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes52c114$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54b5…2e90backed Yes49c102.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.47650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.