TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof PARIVISION, Vitality
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$812,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $812,254 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 495 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9bad…861fbacked PARIVISION37c73,557$27,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,446.661668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+35.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Vitality60c30,051$18,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,936.943,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed PARIVISION35c20,073$7,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,084.8381843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked PARIVISION24c20,000$4,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,849.9930726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Vitality64c19,083$12,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,923.7476058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked PARIVISION68c16,476$11,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,227.1622468.8%154 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Vitality77c15,200$11,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,534.4812153.7%65 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed PARIVISION23c9,404$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,162.8167041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc690…42b8backed Vitality76c9,066$6,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,177.03633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-43.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed Vitality48c9,000$4,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,686.9310361.2%63 W · 40 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed PARIVISION47c8,583$3,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,993.246634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Vitality75c8,198$6,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.5346949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed PARIVISION25c7,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004621.7%10 W · 36 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e74…5972backed PARIVISION23c7,375$1,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,696.194238.1%16 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed PARIVISION25c6,545$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.483930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Vitality60c6,235$3,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,471.161,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked PARIVISION40c5,979$2,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,381.543,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Vitality66c5,505$3,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.4239248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Vitality56c5,449$3,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,405.6953746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Vitality75c5,243$3,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.1944957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Vitality71c5,147$3,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.71,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb7b…ed88backed Vitality44c4,542$2,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,531.242860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdab8…1bc7backed Vitality52c4,250$2,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.8910841.7%45 W · 63 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Vitality70c4,182$2,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.0688746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Vitality62c4,157$2,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.432,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked PARIVISION24c3,865$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.3328538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Vitality60c3,728$2,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.6736245.3%164 W · 198 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION38c3,713$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.486,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed PARIVISION23c3,573$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.0997040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b9…0eddbacked Vitality73c3,549$2,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.284645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked Vitality40c3,382$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.186848.5%33 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb090…69d7backed Vitality55c3,289$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,473.322850%14 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fe…0956backed PARIVISION46c3,236$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.6210663.2%67 W · 39 L+10.5wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked PARIVISION56c3,055$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.3953545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed PARIVISION25c3,022$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.7313545.9%62 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Vitality76c2,995$2,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.823355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed PARIVISION33c2,995$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00031757.7%183 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Vitality66c2,931$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.561,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Vitality71c2,864$2,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.031,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Vitality59c2,768$1,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.9433452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Vitality76c2,702$2,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.6838868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Vitality62c2,639$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.5480744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked PARIVISION52c2,500$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31025555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked PARIVISION31c2,500$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.2835850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked Vitality77c2,473$1,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.895653.6%30 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Vitality76c2,309$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.099343%40 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked PARIVISION32c2,303$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.211,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed Vitality47c2,017$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.5520942.1%88 W · 121 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed Vitality50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.3810047%47 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b97…4d93backed PARIVISION24c2,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4708151.9%42 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849b…e7a5backed PARIVISION21c1,960$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0af…3b75backed Vitality58c1,931$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.7118342.1%77 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Vitality75c1,839$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.2239970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa8a8…bdc6backed Vitality76c1,827$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.4110753.3%57 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked PARIVISION24c1,805$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.8821737.3%81 W · 136 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed PARIVISION24c1,785$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.5378639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Vitality60c1,778$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.746149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Vitality59c1,761$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.7126549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed PARIVISION24c1,750$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9912648.4%61 W · 65 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed PARIVISION38c1,713$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.3129831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed PARIVISION60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012649.2%62 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked Vitality60c1,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.664957.1%28 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99f4…2ababacked PARIVISION61c1,645$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed PARIVISION23c1,600$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36816149.1%79 W · 82 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Vitality56c1,595$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.671,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb752…cabcbacked PARIVISION23c1,568$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.028445.2%38 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Vitality71c1,500$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43546749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed PARIVISION24c1,500$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.151,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed PARIVISION54c1,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.996243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ac…aa06backed PARIVISION39c1,400$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5464645.7%21 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed PARIVISION32c1,358$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.192,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked PARIVISION29c1,342$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.1810251%52 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed PARIVISION43c1,321$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.253540%14 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Vitality61c1,300$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5073066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+21.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Vitality69c1,278$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.9136555.9%204 W · 161 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Vitality64c1,274$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.7524544.5%109 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed PARIVISION31c1,271$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39911940.3%48 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Vitality57c1,264$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.1613546.7%63 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Vitality54c1,250$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.328938.2%34 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb145…df85backed Vitality50c1,220$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6103129%9 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5818…44a3backed PARIVISION38c1,210$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.86248.4%30 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Vitality56c1,191$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.0448437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked PARIVISION23c1,167$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.4661228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24f1…537cbacked Vitality77c1,117$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.1414555.2%80 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Vitality62c1,106$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.622,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fd…8002backed Vitality58c1,087$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.9713950.4%70 W · 69 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf48e…428fbacked Vitality52c1,082$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.7411147.7%53 W · 58 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed PARIVISION4c1,065$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016050%80 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Vitality58c1,048$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.7612446.8%58 W · 66 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Vitality59c1,043$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.6322761.7%140 W · 87 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Vitality72c1,039$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.771,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9bf…4bebbacked Vitality53c1,039$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.94047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda8…23f8backed Vitality50c1,027$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.652653.8%14 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+13.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION38c1,016$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.7537646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed PARIVISION32c1,009$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.026245.2%28 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed PARIVISION60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60024134.4%83 W · 158 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Vitality63c999.98$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.9940950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Vitality61c999.97$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.999340.9%38 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x99a2…feedbacked PARIVISION33c969.99$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.712132.2%39 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Vitality75c962.25$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.2546165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.