Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Velykomykhailivka by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf10f856a49a5bc1599e9d3d74192443c906eb43e8cb22937bd88c7383d70c5c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 0c | 37,700$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 2,071$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.96 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 10c | 2,034$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.69 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 7c | 1,789$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.22 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 2c | 1,534$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 30c | 1,511$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.09 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,426$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 8c | 1,264$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 3c | 999.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…5a85backed Yes | 14c | 889.13$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 11c | 874.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 9c | 761.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 79c | 653.4$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 7c | 566.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 532.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 16c | 523.71$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 3c | 340.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 7c | 338.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 80c | 318.82$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3a…d4d5backed Yes | 32c | 307.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 5c | 299.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 5c | 294.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 15c | 272.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 270.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6051backed Yes | 8c | 230.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8ba2backed Yes | 5c | 230$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 10c | 204.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed Yes | 14c | 203.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 11c | 200.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 25c | 178.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 6c | 176.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 176$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…3603backed No | 80c | 166.5$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed Yes | 13c | 152.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 57c | 146.68$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed Yes | 10c | 108.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…a2efbacked No | 73c | 91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed Yes | 12c | 83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 79c | 66.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…a4b9backed Yes | 31c | 65.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x716e…8c1bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked No | 74c | 27.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 71c | 22.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…f49ebacked No | 77c | 13.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Velykomykhailivka by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Velykomykhailivka by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.