Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Velykomykhailivka by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb942f1af89d070b1e337b8e49afdba4474400cf8281f098da92e2d5b2bd8a165
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 6,954$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…4cadbacked No | 79c | 3,812$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.94 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 27c | 2,221$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.58 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 1c | 2,209$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 9c | 2,065$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.98 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes | 18c | 2,007$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.96 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,808$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 13c | 1,614$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.69 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d7…d604backed Yes | 21c | 1,350$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 1,147$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.52 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,099$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 6c | 999.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 21c | 941.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 10c | 899.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 6c | 735.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 588.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 579.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685b…2d04backed No | 76c | 480.03$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 444.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 67c | 329.85$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.85 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2b…a48ebacked Yes | 14c | 278.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 79c | 227.85$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 70c | 191.68$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 22c | 124.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 14c | 101.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada0…440ebacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10eb…3c1fbacked No | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Velykomykhailivka by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Velykomykhailivka by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.