Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3882f3efbf292192f105476e2ec661a9fcdc4d15f3d973cc44ec461bb8d35a02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 1,198$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.56 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 24c | 1,081$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.56 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 6c | 936.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…7e88backed Yes | 33c | 899.99$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 10c | 865$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed No | 67c | 864.02$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 6c | 697$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 62c | 655.41$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.06 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 38c | 502.44$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.17 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 8c | 479.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 64c | 462.37$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.25 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 448.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3667…a875backed Yes | 8c | 400.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 15c | 356.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 24c | 291.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 35c | 258.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 38c | 240$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 50c | 239$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.82 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…ed1abacked Yes | 9c | 220.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 6c | 205.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…5a85backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 6c | 198.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 69c | 189.75$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…a3fabacked No | 53c | 188.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 45c | 184$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 8c | 172$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc2…8c7fbacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 12c | 134.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…2dd7backed Yes | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 71c | 106.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8def…8b44backed No | 70c | 71.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed No | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 48c | 65.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 62c | 61.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…c73cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…28d1backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Yes | 39c | 56.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…ad26backed No | 50c | 50.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 78c | 30.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…5762backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…13ebbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…08fabacked No | 79c | 17.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Drobysheve by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Drobysheve by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.