Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17898a96b75e23f9bc7a14cf5bfb3b699984c1b729471bbfecfbc9f2fdecfdfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 7c | 4,082$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.5 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 16c | 3,658$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.94 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 17c | 3,200$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.77 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 6c | 1,927$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…9abdbacked Yes | 12c | 1,516$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 16c | 1,322$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.53 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 9c | 1,200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 12c | 1,113$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.2 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 17c | 1,096$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed Yes | 6c | 1,070$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 77c | 994.65$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.77 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 14c | 880.91$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.79 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 77c | 802.61$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.65 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6051backed Yes | 22c | 750$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 11c | 704.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 15c | 697.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.68 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 18c | 593.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 588.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f4…5e12backed Yes | 7c | 549.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 536.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 21c | 503$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.66 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 9c | 499.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716e…8c1bbacked Yes | 3c | 421.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 80c | 315$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 6c | 304.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 220$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 18c | 122$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 12c | 107.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef9…427dbacked Yes | 23c | 100.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…01febacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c2…12b9backed Yes | 23c | 70.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180b…d1febacked Yes | 24c | 50.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 74c | 30.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…f16cbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 61c | 18.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Drobysheve by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Drobysheve by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.