Venezuela · resolved market
Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement by Dec 31 on Friday over 20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f320083aad3aa8bd842f0825acc564bcabd1bfa00d6d6eebbe61d11d81a81aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 10c | 4,309$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.26 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9c…56fabacked Yes | 13c | 3,678$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 1,332$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 5c | 1,113$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 75c | 1,066$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.78 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…0c2fbacked No | 61c | 601$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 7c | 500$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed No | 15c | 237.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.39 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 16c | 186.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +977.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…44d8backed No | 9c | 175$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 9c | 158$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +497.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes | 24c | 154$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 55c | 77.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked No | 76c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 41.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 67c | 33.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…2923backed No | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937d…80babacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement by Dec 31 on Friday over 20%?this page
- Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement by Dec 31 on Friday over 25%?No won
- Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement by Dec 31 on Friday over 30%?No won
- Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement by Dec 31 on Friday over 40%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.