AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8907df249124246bd54716597601fcd5f06f75c3dd0f53b701ed838e30afe540
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,992 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5ad…bda1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 73c | 4,141$3,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.59 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 33c | 2,243$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.83 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 36c | 1,191$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.61 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 57c | 1,000$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 54c | 545.6$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.22 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 39c | 399.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.6 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…1fb2backed Yes | 37c | 399.36$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 51c | 347$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 14c | 337.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 49c | 322$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.22 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 49c | 312$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.12 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed No | 16c | 299.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…4569backed No | 49c | 293$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 51c | 291$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.41 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 51c | 289$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.39 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 16c | 271.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.65 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 5c | 264.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 35c | 237.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.96 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 17c | 218.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…27e2backed No | 15c | 170.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 13c | 150$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 111.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 106.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 73c | 104.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…51ccbacked No | 13c | 103$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +682.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 14c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…2b01backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…8420backed No | 18c | 98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…006fbacked No | 13c | 82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +650.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…3e22backed No | 13c | 82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +690.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 16c | 78.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 17c | 76.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 14c | 76.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 17c | 75.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 17c | 73.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 62.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…b298backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 31c | 35.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 22.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…9b49backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 75c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 79c | 12.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…44dfbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?this page
- Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?No won
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?Yes won
- Will Paprika Recipe Manager 3 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.