TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb13c…3e22

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
13
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Champions League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Pacers: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.43
Raptors vs. Rockets: O/U 217.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.2
Heat vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$31.68
Clippers vs. Spursbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$30.15
Cavaliers vs. Nuggetsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+81.8%+$38.25
All 5 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$12.18
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+38.9%+$5.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,247.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+4,247.8%+$1,235.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+690.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+690.5%+$71.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-02-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+117.4%+$22.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick61cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$20.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$2.86
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.