TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will the Gaza–Israel conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,861

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,168$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.981,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed Yes40c3,537$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8476…5418backed No62c3,504$2,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.08850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes32c1,200$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37845738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed No60c1,085$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.17636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9246…14c5backed Yes15c689.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c625.63$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.6647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed No69c603.57$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.746439.1%25 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-0.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Yes33c542.84$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.75911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-82.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes30c478.47$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.23955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes28c476.51$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.812825%7 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-57.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed No68c457$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.241241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No68c453.74$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8125731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No69c420$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.9915452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No69c399.99$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12430127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35a3…2a32backed Yes43c395.09$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.4110%0 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbdfb…c05cbacked Yes34c345.59$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9118…c706backed Yes30c335.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed Yes9c291$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.192339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf79f…4758backed Yes37c272.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes32c267$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.442227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick37cpaid+8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed No75c266$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.51931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c262.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7857426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e1…d80bbacked No69c250$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No69c239.32$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.018041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes25c213$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.252857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc60…777fbacked No79c208.15$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.15540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No64c202.75$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.187852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No78c200.14$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.013447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No68c200$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653060%18 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3336…f823backed Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.21633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+91%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No70c190$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked Yes32c186$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.521936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes23c184.91$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1718323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfde8…0438backed Yes52c184.17$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe54d…c913backed No68c181$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.921181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick57cpaid+53.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38d6…d10abacked Yes14c180.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2360%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes31c155.55$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.22728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fae…6853backed Yes32c155$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-59.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc561…b68bbacked Yes33c149.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c134.38$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.672935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0522…02f4backed Yes28c130$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-49%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed No55c130$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.54843.8%21 W · 27 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+24.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No66c122.65$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.24463.6%28 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed Yes18c122.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca3…ef94backed Yes28c121.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No66c119.56$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9412639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed No59c102.1$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.13956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+304.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb65e…3e11backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334161%25 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x801e…8692backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x304c…7a74backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4c…c1ddbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0989…1b82backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfb…1f69backed No70c99.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-34.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4313…d34ebacked Yes36c98.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24f1…2ccfbacked No73c96.27$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked No61c87$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.931741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked Yes39c87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.932839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No71c84.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.444553.3%24 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe148…d084backed Yes30c83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes19c77.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7889317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x699d…4260backed Yes39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa05…fed7backed Yes36c70.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc82…5f99backed Yes37c69.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e08…da31backed Yes37c66.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked No70c63.33$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.34447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd701…6898backed Yes32c61.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+56.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c93…6a5ebacked Yes31c60.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11ae…c4c8backed Yes33c60.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed Yes31c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.31643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1401…0707backed No62c58.01$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.931450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes25c53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.252236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06df…3b05backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b12…aba8backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-81.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x059c…39ecbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+100%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8dc7…116fbacked No66c48.57$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.571735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20267.7%2 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-5.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb48b…648ebacked No46c46.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.29887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick51cpaid+72.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No76c46.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.220148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes34c43.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157146.5%33 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No66c39.87$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5618544.3%82 W · 103 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69ea…15cdbacked No59c36.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.30per pick62cpaid+46.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0102…32afbacked Yes41c36.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed Yes32c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22931%9 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7a6…8e49backed Yes43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No62c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.55950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No68c24.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6517350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe36a…2aaebacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff3…c49fbacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.