Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 51–60 times during March Madness?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4854a180f815157c8755f7bf96fe5f19ec60bca5c075e1f0cebab96aa11fd6aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 22c | 1,806$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed No | 78c | 994$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 13c | 786.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 78c | 650$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…0af9backed Yes | 14c | 331.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 263.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f00cbacked Yes | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…1488backed Yes | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a39…28edbacked Yes | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…7e8fbacked Yes | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d2…b26dbacked Yes | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98f…f7cbbacked Yes | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…9070backed Yes | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…bbfcbacked Yes | 40c | 239$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf495…ec9abacked No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad76…bce2backed No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6e…cb46backed No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ad…3087backed No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…7fdfbacked No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761f…7e98backed No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…5882backed No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0406…0e9dbacked No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c6…e80bbacked No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…a730backed No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…b7bebacked No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc10…9fcbbacked No | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 78c | 162$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed No | 51c | 130.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf169…1285backed No | 65c | 122.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 18c | 99.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 13c | 88.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked No | 69c | 76.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…3a4dbacked Yes | 37c | 62.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 53.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…bffebacked Yes | 29c | 53.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 28c | 38.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…b489backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…5460backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 51–60 times during March Madness?this page
- Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 41–50 times during March Madness?No won
- Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 61–70 times during March Madness?No won
- Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 71–80 times during March Madness?No won
- Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 81+ times during March Madness?Yes won
- Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" ≤ 40 times during March Madness?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.