Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b1c6ee4b9a0d635ff56a5e2e17eda425eabf081cf0fbcb325980cdfe597d845
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,262$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…f66ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,109$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde93…0283backed Yes | 5c | 924.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 865.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 7c | 650$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…5b8fbacked Yes | 5c | 514.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked Yes | 8c | 384$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 8c | 380$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 7c | 351$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 13cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed Yes | 6c | 280$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 8c | 247$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…9907backed Yes | 7c | 246$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 8c | 233$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 8c | 219$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2705…9796backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 7c | 199.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 9c | 192$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 8c | 187$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 7c | 185$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 7c | 177$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 10c | 167$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 7c | 151$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…6c92backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 8c | 142$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 8c | 131$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 8c | 126$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?this page
- Will Amazon (AMZN) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?No won
- Will Nvidia (NVDA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.