Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 20-39 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a47341a98cbd3f45eacfbba0a6baf21296902304e74f8d253129ba79fa0ac58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,404 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 11c | 2,322$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,074.56 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,163$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.01 | 122 | 32.8%40 W · 82 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…bc87backed No | 44c | 1,138$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc09e…dbdbbacked No | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c9…7223backed No | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa088…d05abacked No | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…b282backed No | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…a80abacked No | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d4…672dbacked No | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked Yes | 15c | 912$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…83eabacked Yes | 56c | 892$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1795…9565backed Yes | 56c | 892$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…00fcbacked Yes | 56c | 892$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…f18bbacked Yes | 56c | 892$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…bc7fbacked Yes | 56c | 892$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7673…9394backed Yes | 56c | 892$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…a940backed Yes | 56c | 892$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428e…e05dbacked Yes | 56c | 892$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 15c | 885$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 15c | 868$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +300.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e04…17b7backed Yes | 56c | 818$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 13c | 562.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 15c | 376.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.05 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 44c | 334.34$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 15c | 204.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.9 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 204$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.46 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 12c | 162.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 71c | 161.02$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked Yes | 12c | 154.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 29c | 133.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 23c | 128.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.29 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…a2c2backed Yes | 10c | 124.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 122.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 50c | 117.87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 11c | 108.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…612abacked Yes | 33c | 104.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 103.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 54c | 99.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 11c | 98.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 94.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 67c | 87.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 44c | 71.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.7wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 56c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 154 | 30.5%47 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 64.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 58.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 264 | 61.7%163 W · 101 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 66c | 52.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 51.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 58c | 47.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked Yes | 51c | 39.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1556…6564backed Yes | 42c | 35.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 65c | 28.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 28.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 20-39 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 140-159 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 200+ posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 40-59 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 60-79 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.