Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 40-59 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75b63b1b72c5097c69531c0cf519a4ac8f1e9b81d99687f28a4989ec1c0ba798
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,862 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes | 21c | 1,588$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 25c | 1,204$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed No | 64c | 1,017$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.25 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 3c | 855.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked No | 75c | 622$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 75c | 582$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +216.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 16c | 577.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 122 | 32.8%40 W · 82 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed No | 79c | 547$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c1…f1f2backed No | 79c | 530$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked No | 79c | 511$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 3c | 396.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 7c | 345.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 7c | 281.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 19c | 242.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 9c | 224.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 7c | 215.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 115 | 9.6%11 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…612abacked Yes | 10c | 198.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…cfd8backed Yes | 52c | 101.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 99.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 69c | 98.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 57.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 26c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 56.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 57c | 42.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 42.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…cd03backed Yes | 61c | 40.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 35.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 48c | 34.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4164…eff2backed Yes | 36c | 30.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 26.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0831…2291backed Yes | 47c | 22.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 57c | 19.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…2af6backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 40-59 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 140-159 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 20-39 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei post 200+ posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 60-79 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.