World Politics · resolved market
Will Sergio Oliver Rodríguez win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x273a77a85092fd7d8d36933cd31ade6225c89493e494d11af26a26b7cf283ce0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked Yes | 34c | 764.68$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.49 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 63c | 605$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.87 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 18c | 591$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 18c | 582$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 18c | 561$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb44…d3d2backed Yes | 66c | 205.09$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 15c | 189.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…5642backed No | 41c | 120.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 62c | 120.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed Yes | 64c | 110$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…0c4abacked No | 35c | 101.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 57c | 75.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 73.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x98a8…59b0backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked No | 36c | 58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…19c8backed No | 36c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 37c | 49.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37dd…28e0backed Yes | 37c | 40.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…3018backed Yes | 29c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…98e0backed Yes | 39c | 39.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 45c | 30.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked No | 65c | 30.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sergio Oliver Rodríguez win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?this page
- Will Alejandro Mostajo Rueda win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Esther Soria Gonzales win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Jhon Ariel Rioja win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Juan Roberth Flores win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Mario Enrique Severich win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Ruth Alina Peralta win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Wilfredo Rolando Morales win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.