Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 42.0–43.9% on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x576ed37b981a4bae9dd68af94967603eca14cd740db8406be1b340dd17a624fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 47c | 16,533$7,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,684.43 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 39c | 8,863$3,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,382.14 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 28c | 2,347$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.82 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 27c | 2,157$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.96 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 10c | 2,030$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836.57 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 58c | 1,267$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.18 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 59c | 1,152$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.04 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 26c | 1,112$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.43 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 33c | 1,109$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.74 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 50c | 761.37$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.6 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 41c | 634.03$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.72 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…9b3bbacked Yes | 44c | 595.36$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 6c | 534.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 25c | 519.2$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.95 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 25c | 477.37$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.68 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 67c | 401.42$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.92 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 57c | 373.23$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 52c | 369.79$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.66 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 36c | 334.1$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.86 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 72c | 321$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.12 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 312.95$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.95 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 261.25$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.57 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 40c | 214.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.83 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 49c | 192.18$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 57c | 179.59$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 28c | 157.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.08 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 67c | 126.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 67c | 103.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…fce0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15a…4e72backed Yes | 52c | 93.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 57c | 89.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 61c | 89.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69a…7c05backed Yes | 41c | 82.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 49c | 81.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked No | 69c | 80.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2b…1670backed Yes | 24c | 79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ca…4655backed Yes | 24c | 76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 38c | 73.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6a…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +194.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…ac0dbacked Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 65c | 62.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b9…7b8dbacked Yes | 39c | 59.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…6bf8backed Yes | 32c | 59.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…84c5backed Yes | 27c | 49.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 77c | 40.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…3bdebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 76c | 36.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…3e2bbacked No | 76c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…d4bbbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…4831backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126c…3e7fbacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…ec61backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 61c | 25.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa97…1a3ebacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…ead3backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa276…e751backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e1…06e1backed Yes | 59c | 23.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…42dabacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…6ae7backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…d702backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…2b60backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 73c | 18.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a1…2e9abacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 42.0–43.9% on December 31?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 40.0–41.9% on December 31?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–45.9% on December 31?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 46.0–47.9% on December 31?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 48.0–49.9% on December 31?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥50.0% on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.