TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfab2…9490

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 55 out of 100; worst NFL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.59
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+51.5%+$6.8
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$16.59
Raptors vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$24.5
Pistons vs. Celticsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+114.1%+$31.18
Hornets vs. Cavaliersbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+119.5%+$12.44
76ers vs. Hawksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$35.56
Wizards vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$15.77
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+480.1%+$66.61
Knicks vs. Magicbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+56.7%+$32.31
Pacers vs. 76ersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$57.3
Bulls vs. Hornetsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+75.2%+$32.2
All 12 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+232.9%+$42
Will Tetairoa McMillan be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11.07
Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$12.42
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$14.9
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC North?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$35.59
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$10.67
Will the Carolina Panthers win the NFC South?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+52.6%+$5.64
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+93.5%+$14.51
Eagles vs. Commandersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$16.2
Chargers vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$43.17
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$47.01
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.32
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$14.78
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$17.21
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+97.8%+$29.65
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+36.3%+$10.38
Brevis FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+77.8%+$32.26
Brevis FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+94.2%+$9.7
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+175.7%+$50.74
All 9 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+119.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$38.31
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+338.9%+$102.74
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+229%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+229%+$46.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+75.4%+$8.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+64.7%+$8.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+26.4%+$4.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Anaconda" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 27m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$22.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.