TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Brevis FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$209,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,530

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,515 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7871…77c6backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe99a…e9fbbacked No53c9,000$4,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,779.991850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c8,873$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.257663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed No7c7,239$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.795712.3%7 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No62c7,019$4,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,337.517545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66f2…de1fbacked Yes66c6,308$4,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,163.81633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-53.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed No72c5,957$4,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,259.49046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa77f…e578backed Yes31c5,820$1,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,020.993129%9 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed No64c5,439$3,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,467.795240.4%21 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x08ea…0751backed Yes46c4,460$2,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,426.343324.2%8 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick38cpaid-45.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b52…8aa4backed Yes43c4,337$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,462.5825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes33c4,257$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,863.5815941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x940c…b266backed Yes51c3,911$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,911.361827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b2…089abacked Yes30c3,582$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,494944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No8c3,302$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24914732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3fd0…047fbacked Yes33c3,300$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,211728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeabd…3a01backed Yes34c3,294$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.573522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a9a…467bbacked Yes43c3,253$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.534129.3%12 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-41.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44a6…d1bbbacked No71c3,174$2,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,238.561735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2102…9362backed No65c3,046$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No0c3,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-80.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xda2b…c006backed Yes37c2,829$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.891338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9359…6aacbacked No33c2,806$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.924632.6%15 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe955…3b03backed No64c2,745$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.244238.1%16 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5449…824fbacked Yes76c2,613$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc82f…460dbacked Yes38c2,513$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.21933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No35c2,507$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.9820551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x524b…49acbacked No62c2,471$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.012245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+73.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26e3…ba96backed No6c2,385$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.02166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-89.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes79c1,947$1,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.555657.1%32 W · 24 L+11.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+74.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes54c1,848$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.339942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed Yes31c1,842$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,271.9118144.8%81 W · 100 L+23.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+55.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No6c1,759$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.121712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb045…d8bcbacked Yes32c1,741$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.073327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-41.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x296d…70f9backed Yes34c1,677$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1095743.9%25 W · 32 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed No51c1,505$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.8810763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed Yes45c1,438$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.311770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+47.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x43bd…dda3backed No69c1,353$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbe…c192backed No6c1,300$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833613.9%5 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd649…6bffbacked No66c1,280$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c1,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa488…4a49backed No73c1,224$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.824065%26 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6581…0206backed Yes30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7002045%9 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02b1…c764backed No64c999.99$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6401723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No18c970$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.614141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0605…1634backed Yes76c932.74$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.33955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick31cpaid+62.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e27…9890backed Yes61c900$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3533531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.5wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-49.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c899.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes33c895.64$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.642231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No12c805$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.92377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes32c800$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb343…46bbbacked Yes33c800$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5361546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick29cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6eb5…d941backed No63c787$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.92540%10 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Yes37c780.31$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.84850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc2…4958backed No65c762.75$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.81656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+111.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No50c756.19$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.368528.2%24 W · 61 L-9.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-45.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No35c712.82$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.825422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e9d…1c47backed No66c700$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5998…c8ebbacked No66c681.64$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf72…af1abacked Yes34c619.08$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.02650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb4…446abacked Yes32c600$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9337…8546backed Yes35c571.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.491844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a49…7d21backed No20c570.5$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.591338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes31c553.21$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.135712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc016…cf73backed No73c548.36$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4022437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a9a…6924backed No65c547.58$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.932653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca4…923dbacked No74c530.42$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3906245.2%28 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc73…242bbacked Yes40c507.83$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.83650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+94.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No8c507.14$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.43754%3 W · 72 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No8c505.53$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.552541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee6b…cc03backed Yes30c500.02$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.012832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No8c500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd585…b1b9backed Yes34c500$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3302846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+456.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x74bc…124abacked Yes30c499.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.9910338.8%40 W · 63 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+26.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x6c40…f5aebacked Yes63c474.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.54520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No40c462.08$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.937546.7%35 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No46c440.9$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4815637.2%58 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5270…7e83backed No23c436.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe656…5e07backed No60c429.98$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.094025%10 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Yes34c415.33$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.885238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2837…e56fbacked Yes80c412.35$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.021010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-87.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f61…e259backed No76c400$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3045028%14 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-44.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No59c400$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23615362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed No64c399.99$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2565942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes32c388.24$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.245026%13 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No10c379.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.52094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed Yes15c370$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.817859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No7c354.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.931190.8%1 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked No65c334.71$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.7813131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x91f9…ba4dbacked Yes28c322.34$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.37666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe258…be54backed Yes63c318.1$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.11435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fc…0109backed Yes77c310$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.47847.4%37 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc853…cdedbacked No66c302$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.321450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked No6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185822.4%13 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed No63c300$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1885166.7%34 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201122.7%3 W · 109 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd221…54fdbacked Yes24c300$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2291741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa29d…6d1ebacked Yes28c281.48$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.482657.7%15 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.27per pick31cpaid+87.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x28ff…4cbabacked Yes36c280.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9c…5e32backed No6c279.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.