Token Launches · resolved market
Brevis FDV above $600M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1280669f471187248c74bfd47105ba96c2cee7a767fd5347152b7989dab4761d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 7c | 5,713$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.48 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1f…5757backed Yes | 17c | 3,615$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,041$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.63 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b52…8aa4backed Yes | 17c | 2,081$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9d…1c47backed Yes | 19c | 1,884$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes | 8c | 1,671$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed Yes | 21c | 1,535$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.3 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…e578backed Yes | 7c | 1,507$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,410$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,370$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77cc…3045backed No | 79c | 964.62$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 78c | 929.05$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.39 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…bf85backed No | 79c | 800$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 529$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 470$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 456.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 441.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d8bcbacked Yes | 8c | 405.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 352.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 300.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…d24cbacked No | 79c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…e56fbacked Yes | 6c | 249.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes | 25c | 241.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe258…be54backed Yes | 17c | 238.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…98b7backed No | 78c | 128.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc016…cf73backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…4322backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brevis FDV above $600M one day after launch?this page
- Brevis FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Brevis FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Brevis FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Brevis FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Brevis FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- Brevis FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Brevis FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
- Brevis FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.