TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Brevis FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$273,819
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$323,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,819 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca6…73e3backed No2c25,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008327.7%23 W · 60 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc82f…460dbacked Yes75c12,249$9,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,109.36933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No26c9,984$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,571.7714732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed No6c9,922$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.415712.3%7 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe99a…e9fbbacked No26c8,774$2,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,252.851850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c8,626$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.787663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No0c5,750$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-80.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x816e…8263backed No34c5,391$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.361618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c5,100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.81712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1549…46f6backed No29c3,355$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.465343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Yes72c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a49…7d21backed No15c2,892$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.031338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa77f…e578backed Yes46c2,892$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.773129%9 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11e9…4136backed No23c2,870$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.138630.2%26 W · 60 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No17c2,500$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4257545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26e3…ba96backed No29c2,065$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.41166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-89.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02b1…c764backed No25c2,014$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.441723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked No53c1,760$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.021926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28b2…ff45backed No21c1,748$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.862520%5 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No8c1,665$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1332377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b52…8aa4backed Yes67c1,610$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.73825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c1,603$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.173283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a9a…6924backed No27c1,591$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.852653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed No27c1,574$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.2710763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a9a…467bbacked Yes64c1,555$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.814129.3%12 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-41.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44a6…d1bbbacked No37c1,527$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.161735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e0f…df2bbacked Yes65c1,517$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.124100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+111.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked No34c1,500$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50913131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c1,466$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.5235712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No22c1,386$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.022010%2 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed Yes60c1,380$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.2917859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6eb5…d941backed No15c1,374$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.22540%10 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed No38c1,331$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.913134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked No26c1,305$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.673834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No27c1,300$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35715362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No22c1,283$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.9425422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c1,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9359…6aacbacked No25c1,250$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3104632.6%15 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6581…0206backed Yes59c1,192$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.682045%9 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No2c1,182$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.532094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bc2…4958backed No23c1,171$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.851656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+111.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20cd…5634backed Yes59c1,147$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.841546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f47…fc05backed No3c1,100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked No16c1,058$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.16836.8%25 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f61…e259backed No42c1,047$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.645028%14 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-44.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes72c999.97$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.9915941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe955…3b03backed No35c977.19$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.994238.1%16 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…72a9backed No23c962.56$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.242748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes69c940.85$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.589942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x776b…7251backed No27c900$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.044341.9%18 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed No41c899.21$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.969046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf500…d9e5backed No27c895.42$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2441735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+47.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e85…1f81backed No42c800$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3363946.2%18 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed No38c797.8$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014437.5%54 W · 90 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No32c762.55$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.869442.6%40 W · 54 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc43d…8f2bbacked Yes57c707.58$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.031060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No3c700$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6754%3 W · 72 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Yes72c677.27$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.633857.9%22 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2609…d39bbacked Yes75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa488…4a49backed No25c660$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.24065%26 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed No34c653$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.825240.4%21 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf72…af1abacked No32c652.85$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed No21c615.91$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.25942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda2b…c006backed Yes47c600.82$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.431338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No3c600$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No4c600$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.61343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad63…27babacked No35c570.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67d0…cd9abacked Yes64c569.35$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.35540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-43.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc853…cdedbacked No26c560.11$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.031450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No30c530.5$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3720551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc016…cf73backed No23c512.8$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.862437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10523841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa5ac…b39ebacked Yes80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5b…dba4backed Yes63c499.99$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7329…d562backed No10c458.41$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.52937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e2…c86fbacked No42c455.2$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1893060%18 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed No21c450$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5339.1%3 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed No31c423.22$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13211942%50 W · 69 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No19c410.27$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5215637.2%58 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes61c408.32$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.831637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9986…1dfbbacked No51c388.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x19d0…d028backed Yes79c387$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.94520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-74.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes67c381.52$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.7710370.9%73 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a76…c4e9backed No27c369.13$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.244647.8%22 W · 24 L+6.7wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+52.6%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xf934…1319backed No23c363.29$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.951421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-59.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd004…0437backed Yes79c348$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.081566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeab4…2191backed No30c347.95$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.92911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-77.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ba…77d6backed No26c340.93$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.194440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd062…7929backed Yes70c334$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.542744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca45…1d6bbacked Yes64c330.74$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No12c328$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.027546.7%35 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3461…fba4backed Yes62c305.34$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.343100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e9d…1c47backed No28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1dc…5460backed No21c299.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638338.6%32 W · 51 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe656…5e07backed No22c299.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664025%10 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf338…16afbacked Yes52c299.04$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.141361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+31.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca6…6392backed Yes69c291.35$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb90a…78e1backed No27c289.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.32025%5 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87bb…01b9backed No48c289.73$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No21c285.42$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.788528.2%24 W · 61 L-9.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-45.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.