Token Launches · resolved market
Brevis FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f802715925010e32040cdd3f6f60a7629b285185e40c38b8a06f69b64eb3888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $476,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $531,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $476,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 0c | 251,559$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.19 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 0c | 30,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 0c | 15,250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 0c | 12,099$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 0c | 6,041$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 4,503$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ae…df47backed No | 5c | 4,191$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.39 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 3,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 1c | 2,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,316$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 1c | 2,058$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 75 | 4%3 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…b394backed No | 2c | 1,772$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…a49dbacked No | 1c | 1,690$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d0…af50backed No | 1c | 1,553$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…ecf7backed No | 1c | 1,550$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 2c | 1,549$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…c4e9backed No | 2c | 1,520$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 2c | 1,356$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 1c | 1,011$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed No | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 948.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 2c | 905.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 2c | 797.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 2c | 734.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…0b92backed No | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…e9cebacked No | 2c | 525.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…3239backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…ae93backed No | 5c | 496.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 5c | 399.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed No | 4c | 317.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…47f0backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…28b8backed Yes | 49c | 105.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 72.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…0db3backed No | 50c | 50.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…24ffbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed Yes | 70c | 48.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brevis FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Brevis FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Brevis FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Brevis FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Brevis FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- Brevis FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Brevis FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Brevis FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
- Brevis FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.