TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will XRP dip to $1.70 in December?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$169,917
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,991

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,917 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes20c40,263$8,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,046.6635123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95d4…c38cbacked No53c20,249$10,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,608.72540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No72c15,686$11,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,391.853253.1%17 W · 15 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick67cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9604…fc1dbacked No80c7,049$5,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.88475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa75…a864backed No69c5,661$3,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…766dbacked Yes39c4,493$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.171872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4d1…8ce8backed Yes48c3,484$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.41450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes6c2,998$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.3940643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98e0…2353backed Yes30c2,962$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa16d…0e34backed No70c2,934$2,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7558…2d70backed Yes2c1,988$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.71105.5%6 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x797a…770cbacked No70c1,848$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+82.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcf3…4cc7backed Yes30c1,843$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59e0…6567backed Yes25c1,790$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a8e…6975backed No75c1,789$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c26…d2f4backed No75c1,787$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2b…7631backed Yes25c1,785$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.35250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd62…e465backed No70c1,704$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa3d…6a5abacked Yes30c1,703$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87d6…ecd0backed No75c1,657$1,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.26250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa05f…0267backed Yes25c1,651$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f1f…4147backed No70c1,585$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda21…7680backed Yes30c1,582$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1443…b5ebbacked No75c1,466$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f94…0be7backed Yes25c1,465$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff8…72d0backed Yes25c1,372$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6185…95f1backed No75c1,363$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+91.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7807…d488backed No70c1,218$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ad…679dbacked Yes30c1,200$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c1,192$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.92999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c1,045$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.886785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No50c918.89$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.076758.2%39 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes7c861$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.571203.3%4 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7532…c6fcbacked No70c800$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.1411265.2%73 W · 39 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes30c651.58$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.0132524.3%79 W · 246 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes7c630.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.11463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes30c599.8$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9455032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes28c525$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7525824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.22125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171073.7%4 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes26c288.95$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5363835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes20c250.8$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.961,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3215…0e4cbacked Yes9c213.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1281369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes32c142.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.767835.9%28 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No69c100.01$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3113053.8%70 W · 60 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac58…39a8backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbbe…b616backed No52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.152951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfab2…9490backed Yes20c80.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.07333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No71c75$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.516537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x95fe…2713backed No75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x131f…2fedbacked Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22119%4 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No65c58.78$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.313842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda9e…42e0backed Yes67c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.330%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3213…dd1fbacked No69c44.59$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.623253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1417953.6%96 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5534…eb60backed No77c39.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.19560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed No79c30.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.383053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.53212.5%4 W · 28 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-56.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ad3…039bbacked No60c28.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.331693.8%15 W · 1 L+5.3wins+0.33per pick61cpaid+65.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7dde…fea8backed No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.