Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x611a9a691f588bb610534aaf8ea17d0d749453a11ff92deac6eb5b3ec130d344
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 20c | 40,263$8,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,046.66 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…c38cbacked No | 53c | 20,249$10,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,608.7 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 72c | 15,686$11,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,391.85 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9604…fc1dbacked No | 80c | 7,049$5,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…a864backed No | 69c | 5,661$3,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…766dbacked Yes | 39c | 4,493$1,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.17 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed Yes | 48c | 3,484$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 6c | 2,998$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.39 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…2353backed Yes | 30c | 2,962$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16d…0e34backed No | 70c | 2,934$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 2c | 1,988$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797a…770cbacked No | 70c | 1,848$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf3…4cc7backed Yes | 30c | 1,843$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e0…6567backed Yes | 25c | 1,790$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8e…6975backed No | 75c | 1,789$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c26…d2f4backed No | 75c | 1,787$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2b…7631backed Yes | 25c | 1,785$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…e465backed No | 70c | 1,704$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3d…6a5abacked Yes | 30c | 1,703$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…ecd0backed No | 75c | 1,657$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0267backed Yes | 25c | 1,651$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1f…4147backed No | 70c | 1,585$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…7680backed Yes | 30c | 1,582$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1443…b5ebbacked No | 75c | 1,466$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f94…0be7backed Yes | 25c | 1,465$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff8…72d0backed Yes | 25c | 1,372$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6185…95f1backed No | 75c | 1,363$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7807…d488backed No | 70c | 1,218$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ad…679dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,192$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,045$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 50c | 918.89$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.07 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 7c | 861$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 70c | 800$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.14 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 30c | 651.58$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.01 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 630.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 30c | 599.8$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.94 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 28c | 525$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 26c | 288.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 250.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3215…0e4cbacked Yes | 9c | 213.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 32c | 142.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 69c | 100.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac58…39a8backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab2…9490backed Yes | 20c | 80.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…2713backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x131f…2fedbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 65c | 58.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…42e0backed Yes | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked No | 69c | 44.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5534…eb60backed No | 77c | 39.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…039bbacked No | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…fea8backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.70 in December?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.90 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.10 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 in December?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.