Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $2.60 in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa863ac8ab16508b359588279e8dcde40059da91a4e6a0a9c2c14de1c482cbb36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 10c | 15,198$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.9 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 37c | 2,002$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.83 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,230$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.33 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 16c | 1,071$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.1 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…0fe2backed Yes | 2c | 868.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x131f…2fedbacked Yes | 21c | 283.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…d93abacked Yes | 10c | 184$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Yes | 21c | 145.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…e5dabacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in December?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.90 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.10 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.70 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 in December?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.