Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.90 in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc02bf0c53aec3d9a2d57b0d0a3f21351d55b348b4d85af61147ef9cfa949acd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 2c | 8,087$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.65 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…766dbacked Yes | 66c | 5,680$3,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.13 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…6b4fbacked No | 29c | 4,839$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 38c | 4,700$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.76 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 67c | 1,366$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.68 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a4…60dabacked No | 38c | 1,300$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 36c | 832.6$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.73 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d6…0badbacked No | 28c | 352.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131f…2fedbacked Yes | 67c | 267.61$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.26 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked No | 28c | 252.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 67c | 237.7$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 27c | 236.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 67cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 68c | 199.89$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 68c | 122.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…b470backed Yes | 77c | 100.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed No | 28c | 60.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530d…c3b3backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…8becbacked Yes | 70c | 19.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 in December?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.90 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.10 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.70 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.