Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $2.40 in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8a74a939efa441dc7539367baf730f225b9eadee11926f94fb0616611253864
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6e9…b069backed Yes | 1c | 10,729$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 21c | 10,270$2,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130.62 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…8a2dbacked No | 74c | 7,312$5,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,911.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 6c | 2,286$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.82 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 46c | 1,994$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.35 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccbc…a33abacked Yes | 1c | 1,685$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 22c | 1,425$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.61 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 4c | 1,319$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…7b3ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,050$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 5c | 1,017$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 899.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 814.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…9074backed Yes | 39c | 685$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 4c | 669.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 56c | 661.02$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.15 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 6c | 624.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 35c | 570.78$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.61 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 538.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1f…7f05backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Yes | 40c | 352.5$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131f…2fedbacked Yes | 37c | 220.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…2899backed Yes | 6c | 205.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…f375backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 41c | 174$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…0e31backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 80c | 119.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…203ebacked No | 59c | 66.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea66…258bbacked No | 55c | 60.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…e5dabacked Yes | 43c | 56.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…039bbacked No | 65c | 30.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…a646backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1904…23d3backed No | 69c | 27.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc595…dabfbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in December?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.90 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.10 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.70 in December?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 in December?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in December?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.