Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb633b3f9459a3c89d6665ffb93c8e22095ada9ce6547f51965349af17d3857e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x155e…cb08backed No | 18c | 12,320$2,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,102.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +427.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,707$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.83 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 11c | 1,360$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 272.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 6c | 250.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…39f9backed Yes | 52c | 123.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 72c | 115$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 17c | 109.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed Yes | 30c | 105$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 15c | 103.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 98.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x65c3…b5e5backed Yes | 53c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…3024backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 79c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 50c | 25.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 78c | 25.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 24.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?this page
- Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?Yes won
- Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.