Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f9fcc462b3a8f8a4919813ed390be771e565a352566e7beb8be227343d7500f

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $16,604
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,716

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,604 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x43ad…70a1backed Yes	65c	2,072$1,356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,356.28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.4wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes	16c	2,037$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.17	143	56.6%81 W · 62 L	+18.5wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	13c	904$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.61	332	38.6%128 W · 204 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-30%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	5c	544$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.51	210	33.3%70 W · 140 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes	13c	449.6$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.62	63	11.1%7 W · 56 L	-8.4wins	-0.13per pick	24cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	6c	433.31$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	315	34%107 W · 208 L	-11.6wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes	18c	421.32$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.33	228	33.8%77 W · 151 L	+13.7wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	17c	402.33$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.33	100	34%34 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	12c	386.02$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.56	248	31%77 W · 171 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae0…b747backed Yes	9c	343.08$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.38	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	79c	302$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.41	171	40.4%69 W · 102 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes	9c	299.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.95	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	11c	285.02$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.19	75	34.7%26 W · 49 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2108…d3ddbacked Yes	18c	277.77$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	13c	271.5$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.3	136	25.7%35 W · 101 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-30%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes	11c	237.25$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.07	93	43%40 W · 53 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes	24c	220.12$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.86	74	37.8%28 W · 46 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-18%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	44c	212$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118	211	55.9%118 W · 93 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No	25c	200$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	196	43.4%85 W · 111 L	+15.5wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	85	50.6%43 W · 42 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes	41c	195$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.85	103	61.2%63 W · 40 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	58c	173.35$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.89	211	61.1%129 W · 82 L	+9.0wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	54c	172$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.26	196	31.1%61 W · 135 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No	61c	167.24$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.41	109	46.8%51 W · 58 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes	25c	159.43$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.4	272	22.1%60 W · 212 L	-15.0wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes	12c	149.77$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	93	26.9%25 W · 68 L	-8.2wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	12c	135.46$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.23	343	33.5%115 W · 228 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	21c	134.23$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.56	334	21.9%73 W · 261 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f48…e69bbacked No	43c	115.71$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.6	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	21c	105.17$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No	27c	92.59$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.59	87	41.4%36 W · 51 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed No	44c	90$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.4	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes	12c	89.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	85	41.2%35 W · 50 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No	66c	87$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.58	125	45.6%57 W · 68 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No	72c	86.02$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.46	103	40.8%42 W · 61 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	65c	85$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.72	182	37.4%68 W · 114 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	32c	77.16$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.61	495	11.5%57 W · 438 L	-17.6wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked No	33c	66.69$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.35	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed No	79c	62$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.02	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked No	53c	56.96$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.84	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes	47c	55$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.9	229	48.9%112 W · 117 L	+7.7wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f7b…03e0backed No	79c	51$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.71	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No	80c	51$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	96	46.9%45 W · 51 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No	39c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.5	107	39.3%42 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e35…a3bdbacked Yes	70c	46.87$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.77	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes	56c	46$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.76	74	47.3%35 W · 39 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa784…3605backed No	30c	45.4$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.79	62	21%13 W · 49 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes	47c	45$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.33	61	32.8%20 W · 41 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes	56c	44$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.64	83	43.4%36 W · 47 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	56c	42$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.27	341	29.3%100 W · 241 L	-11.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked Yes	31c	41$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.71	50	30%15 W · 35 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No	74c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.36	120	49.2%59 W · 61 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6709…af18backed No	78c	37.98$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.36	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	36c	37.22$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.53	669	14.8%99 W · 570 L	-105.6wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-66%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes	39c	34$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No	52c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	45	62.2%28 W · 17 L	+5.2wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes	67c	30$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	-4.0wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No	46c	29.3$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.91	152	32.9%50 W · 102 L	-5.8wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	58c	27$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.34	109	47.7%52 W · 57 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No	41c	25.19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.94	121	50.4%61 W · 60 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No	58c	24.25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.19	80	51.3%41 W · 39 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No	66c	17.57$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.9	82	58.5%48 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?this page
Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?Yes won
Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event