Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb59d36284a3e05ca397761f1cbcbefcfee54fe0f3821d440140cbe5c3eb436f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8536…9662backed No | 15c | 2,269$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,706$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 19c | 1,039$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.34 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32fd…5c8bbacked Yes | 77c | 964.08$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.91 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 18c | 820.05$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.7 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 19c | 810$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 64c | 708.01$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.26 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 540.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 70c | 524.39$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.22 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 30c | 513.05$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.26 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…9999backed No | 19c | 459.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 19c | 410$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 80c | 344.32$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.02 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 9c | 299.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 13c | 252.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 13c | 244.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 25c | 235.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52ee…2f52backed No | 13c | 230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 224.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 62c | 199.88$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 67c | 199$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 19c | 192.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 12c | 188.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 7c | 187.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 175$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 172.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 170$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 43c | 164.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 43c | 161.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…289cbacked No | 17c | 144.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 10c | 143$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.98 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 18c | 135$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 11c | 131.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.71 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25f9…032ebacked Yes | 18c | 130.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Yes | 80c | 123$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Yes | 40c | 113.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 17c | 108$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 30c | 86.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 17c | 82.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 25c | 81.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 56c | 79.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 52c | 71.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2601…d1f9backed No | 22c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 21c | 69.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed No | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 25c | 62.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed No | 80c | 59.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 49c | 53.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 79c | 46.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 40c | 46.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8908…5282backed Yes | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 80c | 33.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe55e…d5dfbacked Yes | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 59c | 29.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 77c | 26.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 24.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 54c | 19.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc14f…0ee1backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 79c | 17.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?this page
- Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?No won
- Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.