Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe2113835fff9936d39836cf7a27d371df885a74b77659167361b8e847dc788b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 4c | 7,839$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.6 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 3c | 2,922$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa056…0f70backed Yes | 3c | 2,203$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,381$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 12c | 1,164$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.71 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 16c | 609.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 3c | 599.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Yes | 3c | 499.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 3c | 451.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 358.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 78c | 339$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 13c | 323.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f44…7470backed Yes | 6c | 292.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…e5e6backed Yes | 4c | 273.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 254.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 78c | 218$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 17c | 176.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 14c | 128.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 62c | 119.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed Yes | 15c | 111.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 18c | 107.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 104.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 11c | 104$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 14c | 100.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 14c | 95.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 15c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 15c | 83.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…fa01backed Yes | 27c | 80.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 14c | 78.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 13c | 78.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 13c | 78.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 19c | 68.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…4463backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 48.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 36.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?this page
- Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Yes won
- Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?No won
- Will Morgan Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?No won
- Will Rodney Walker be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.