Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc97d3ba4d206c07f62648a16d157a9cd42128b50b91e9e9f6be500919dd96519
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 33c | 2,904$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.32 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 67c | 1,986$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.33 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,304$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.88 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed No | 67c | 1,006$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.26 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 19c | 910.95$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.54 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 562.28$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.98 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 400$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 65c | 331$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.21 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa056…0f70backed Yes | 17c | 326.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…67dcbacked No | 69c | 278.17$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.23 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef86…5afcbacked Yes | 34c | 260.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 67c | 243$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 65c | 180.53$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 65c | 180$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked No | 65c | 159$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Yes | 34c | 147$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed Yes | 34c | 146.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 19c | 135.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 37c | 133.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 23c | 131.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 120.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed No | 66c | 111$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Yes | 36c | 105$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 103.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 91.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 75.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 78c | 49.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 44.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 36c | 41.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 64c | 26.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…5a38backed No | 61c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11?this page
- Will John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11?Yes won
- Will Lisa Carlquist be the Republican nominee for GA-11?No won
- Will Tricia Pridemore be the Republican nominee for GA-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.