Us Midterms · resolved market
Will John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd4161173113a9bb31ac04921d150e6e8ad684c32e1cbde9288b7171a1451a1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 69c | 2,345$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.72 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 46c | 1,235$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.62 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 36c | 800$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 562.27$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.38 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed Yes | 73c | 466.51$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 220$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 172 | 40.7%70 W · 102 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 57c | 180$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 46c | 172.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 30c | 117.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 34c | 103.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 100.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 13c | 88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…1a4dbacked Yes | 62c | 61.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 58c | 61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 57c | 51.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Yes | 42c | 50.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 47c | 43.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Yes | 67c | 40.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 65c | 30.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…cfbdbacked Yes | 71c | 27.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a8…8a98backed Yes | 70c | 21.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11?this page
- Will Lisa Carlquist be the Republican nominee for GA-11?No won
- Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11?No won
- Will Tricia Pridemore be the Republican nominee for GA-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.