AI · resolved market
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcabcb59a877a0d5b66f15767bc185d8f066fa82d95068ca71aa921f341f81626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked No | 24c | 3,000$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…0a15backed No | 8c | 2,773$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.71 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 70c | 2,540$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…9f09backed Yes | 79c | 2,171$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 12c | 2,128$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.85 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…efc2backed No | 10c | 1,925$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 12c | 1,915$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.4 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4014…a2edbacked No | 70c | 1,845$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 14c | 1,821$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.96 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 72c | 1,526$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.39 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…ff3dbacked Yes | 76c | 1,478$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…a82bbacked No | 57c | 1,289$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 17c | 1,280$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.35 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed No | 8c | 1,101$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 46c | 944$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.66 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d2…0d37backed No | 25c | 943.8$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…06afbacked Yes | 59c | 927.19$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 15c | 881.27$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.34 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 9c | 877.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…3f1bbacked No | 55c | 866.82$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…fecabacked Yes | 76c | 861.98$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.89 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 11c | 856.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…f1d4backed No | 12c | 853.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 40c | 799.96$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 57c | 756.32$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.49 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…f5a6backed Yes | 70c | 754.25$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 743.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 3c | 721.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 66c | 715.71$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.34 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 61c | 695.63$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.77 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked Yes | 26c | 650.98$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c8…46cbbacked Yes | 14c | 633$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed Yes | 38c | 631.31$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.44 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…4ba4backed No | 10c | 623.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 618.55$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.01 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6363…8fbcbacked No | 24c | 583.41$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 15c | 575.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.88 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…8df6backed No | 28c | 573.38$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 537.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 14c | 534.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked No | 17c | 490.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked Yes | 42c | 476.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed No | 67c | 450.03$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.75 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed No | 9c | 428.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 424.12$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb534…d9a2backed Yes | 44c | 412.88$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 21c | 412.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.74 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 10c | 402.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…2755backed No | 11c | 379.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125d…f9bbbacked No | 5c | 371.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 16c | 358.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 11c | 353.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.85 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…ad4bbacked No | 58c | 352.88$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 7c | 352.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…5ccfbacked No | 48c | 330.66$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 34c | 313.7$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.83 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…93b1backed Yes | 74c | 299.95$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 18c | 285.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 279.81$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 22c | 276.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…b889backed Yes | 55c | 275.5$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf513…adf0backed No | 9c | 271.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 75c | 262.64$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…747abacked Yes | 35c | 260$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 19c | 220$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 23c | 203$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.01 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 46c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…a168backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…9281backed No | 19c | 199.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 73c | 199.4$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…a22abacked Yes | 34c | 197.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 59c | 191.72$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.31 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b87…4382backed No | 24c | 190.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Yes | 44c | 180.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Yes | 53c | 170.87$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 39c | 170$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…f67dbacked No | 9c | 168.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked No | 16c | 153.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 60c | 151.89$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…8bc9backed No | 27c | 149.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked No | 63c | 140$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 14c | 135.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d2…61eabacked No | 15c | 134.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed No | 12c | 133.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 65c | 132.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked Yes | 76c | 131.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed Yes | 39c | 128.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…06fdbacked No | 62c | 123$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…7cd3backed Yes | 58c | 118.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…f3c8backed Yes | 25c | 117.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…1de2backed Yes | 39c | 115.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 55c | 110.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 10, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 11, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 12, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 15, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 16, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 17, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 18, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 19, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 20, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 24, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 27, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 30, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 31, 2026?No won
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.