TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,549
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,440

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,549 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8d2…0d37backed Yes8c1,834$151 inLost-$150.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-58.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes1c904.46$12 inLost-$12.094425%11 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes2c838.97$16 inLost-$15.63387.9%3 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-72.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c824.66$14 inLost-$13.661754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes3c777.39$26 inLost-$261315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid+19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c773.2$11 inLost-$11.083042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c713.85$13 inLost-$13.121,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecf6…f22bbacked Yes2c590.19$12 inLost-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes2c500.62$12 inLost-$11.72977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes4c450$16 inLost-$15.822321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-12.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes2c447.95$11 inLost-$10.912110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cbc…5196backed Yes7c349.34$26 inLost-$2660%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2312…b1c2backed Yes6c309.74$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e1b…f002backed Yes5c223.24$11 inLost-$11.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb098…1038backed Yes5c205.27$10 inLost-$101118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid+249.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x277b…31fabacked Yes6c181.3$11 inLost-$10.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbac…fc80backed Yes9c136.67$12 inLost-$12.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.