Middle East · resolved market
Tucker Carlson federally charged?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ecb0995bb46eb688cac048d81cfd28ac5032b574cf93e4e3f3d492d5e58a599
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe97c…ceefbacked Yes | 2c | 9,047$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 4,176$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.33 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 8c | 3,695$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.51 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadcf…447ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,814$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1f…e66fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,480$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,411$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb5…9452backed Yes | 2c | 1,333$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…7d0ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,108$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 4c | 975.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 8c | 956.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 7c | 917.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd131…9422backed Yes | 6c | 799.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeade…f26dbacked Yes | 11c | 795.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb671…32d1backed Yes | 10c | 754.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 6c | 738.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 719.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ada…f987backed Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…b20abacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 450.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 9c | 380$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 7c | 355.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…d665backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bb…21f5backed Yes | 6c | 331.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…73b3backed Yes | 9c | 317.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1f…a772backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 8c | 311$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 280.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…8e90backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…f14cbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 212$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…4138backed Yes | 9c | 212$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 207.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…622dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 6c | 185.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd784…8f5bbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9684…6a67backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…a1babacked Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 9c | 122.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 11c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…e02bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…ba6ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa668…ddd9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.