AI · resolved market
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fafa519bbd192973eaa173e6b71fb816ba8f8eeb2dd8f0fd6dbe19c68635dff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 54c | 4,391$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,031.84 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…e4b4backed No | 36c | 3,884$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199f…3d76backed Yes | 25c | 876$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 16cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc9…0e6ebacked No | 25c | 566$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 54c | 343.85$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.81 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 30c | 312.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1b…5951backed No | 75c | 310$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 68c | 275$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 15c | 218$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 139.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…fedabacked No | 17c | 132.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…0d8fbacked Yes | 79c | 89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 29c | 48.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…6900backed Yes | 56c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?this page
- Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes won
- Will any xAI Grok model score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.