TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Jan 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$157,378
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$143,028

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,378 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes3c10,000$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2662123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c7,350$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.413216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes2c6,277$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8418425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes2c5,960$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.7118725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa694…3f17backed Yes3c3,569$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb857…5958backed Yes9c2,462$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes3c2,407$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.464717%8 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99aa…522abacked Yes1c2,319$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0560%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c2,086$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3413714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes5c2,044$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.252516%4 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f1…92edbacked Yes3c1,718$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes6c1,673$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4419638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes4c1,569$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.351747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcac9…200bbacked Yes5c1,522$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.38850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x562b…a3cbbacked Yes9c1,519$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-73.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes2c1,314$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.543735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd15…f245backed Yes8c1,291$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes6c1,262$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.717751.9%40 W · 37 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes7c1,249$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854247.6%20 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes5c1,209$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+21.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66b2…5ab6backed Yes8c1,180$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed Yes9c1,120$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+31.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,062$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.441343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes6c1,055$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1622641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x566d…c460backed Yes5c1,054$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Yes2c1,052$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604266.7%28 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf072…cee7backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-43.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes2c972.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c901.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.441,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes6c849.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5319.7%3 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes18c813.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.371855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d68…3041backed Yes19c802.76$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+54.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c780.41$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.84787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes8c723.04$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.181921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b35…4a36backed Yes9c697.97$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes7c693.18$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.53514.3%5 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes5c650$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.54814.6%7 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83cc…3bcdbacked Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes2c547.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.55943.2%3 W · 91 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes15c527.63$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.210135.6%36 W · 65 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes5c526.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.75333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes3c503.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.96736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa09c…f710backed Yes17c480$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.961060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+30.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes9c440$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.455618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ba…8260backed Yes5c439$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes6c416.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-63.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc14…60c4backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef67…2a33backed Yes8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-86.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed Yes12c399.46$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.162326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53b4…0139backed Yes17c349.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdda4…ca72backed Yes3c336.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99b4…308bbacked Yes6c334.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e7…e302backed Yes7c333.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb19e…b2edbacked Yes7c333.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes3c330.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.181729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd24d…3ab5backed Yes8c323.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad2a…69d8backed Yes32c315.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c89…3681backed Yes3c312.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes8c306.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5931840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdabe…69f6backed Yes10c301.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes6c268.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.983813.2%5 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+47.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes7c268.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.71728.3%6 W · 66 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes6c265.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.616540%26 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes15c251.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.712839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes8c247.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes13c230.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x256e…8a38backed Yes10c222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc8…e847backed Yes5c219.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3615227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135431.5%17 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb11e…84c5backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04ff…f376backed Yes11c175.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50dd…21aabacked Yes6c159.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes13c153.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2036527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc43c…a74abacked Yes16c126.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fef…0cc5backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102425%6 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.411854.2%64 W · 54 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe891…465dbacked No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-43.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca41…3af9backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3bf…99d3backed Yes31c80.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ac…45d4backed Yes17c73.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7fa…c81abacked Yes15c70$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.35540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf382…4cd6backed No79c63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes25c47.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-67.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No69c41.21$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9233618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No73c40.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6be5…0fbbbacked No69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a78…e345backed Yes59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8803…8ddfbacked No80c37.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.586572.3%47 W · 18 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.